瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20251210

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic market has sufficient cotton supply as the current inspection volume of new cotton has exceeded 4.6 million tons and the port cotton inventory remains high. The import quota for this year is almost used up, with limited RMB shipments, resulting in more imports than exports at cotton ports. As of December 4, the weekly inventory at major import cotton ports increased by 1.92% to 387,600 tons, reaching a five - month high. The downstream demand is relatively differentiated, with the demand for high - count yarn improving, which boosts the cotton market to some extent. Overall, although the demand shows marginal improvement, the supply is still abundant, limiting the rebound of cotton prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 13,780, up 40; cotton yarn main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 19,965, up 20 - Cotton futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 136,077, down 5702; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 250, up 172 - Main contract positions: cotton (daily, lots): 474,318, down 4249; cotton yarn (daily, lots): 18,058, up 688 - Warehouse receipt quantity: cotton (daily, sheets): 2970, up 221; cotton yarn (daily, sheets): 12, unchanged - China Cotton Price Index: CCIndex: 3128B (daily, yuan/ton): 15,004, up 5; China Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Carded Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 20,800, unchanged - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: 1% tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 12,846, up 34; arrival price of Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Carded Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 21,036, down 23 - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: sliding - scale tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 13,873; arrival price of Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Combed Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 22,209, down 25 [2] Spot Market - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: 1% tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 12,846, up 34; arrival price of Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Carded Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 21,036, down 23 - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: sliding - scale tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 13,873; arrival price of Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: Pure Cotton Combed Yarn 32S (daily, yuan/ton): 22,209, down 25 [2] Upstream Situation - National cotton sown area (annual, thousand hectares): 2838.3, up 48.3; national cotton output (annual, million tons): 6.16, up 0.54 [2] Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B, yuan/ton): 5796, down 5 - Industrial inventory of cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 85, up 6.5 - Cotton import volume: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 9, down 1; cotton yarn import volume: monthly value (monthly, tons): 140,000, up 10,000 - Imported cotton profit (daily, yuan/ton): 1131, down 7 - Commercial inventory of cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 293.06, up 190.89 [2] Downstream Situation - Inventory days of yarn (monthly, days): 26.12, up 1.27; inventory days of grey fabric (monthly, days): 31.97, up 0.85 - Cloth output: monthly value (monthly, billion meters): 26.2, down 1.8; yarn output: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 2.001, down 0.073 - Export value of clothing and clothing accessories: monthly value (monthly, million US dollars): 11,003,480.43, down 1,449,766.57; export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products: monthly value (monthly, million US dollars): 11,258,418.92, down 708,097.08 [2] Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option for cotton (%): 11.58, up 4.1; implied volatility of at - the - money put option for cotton (%): 11.58, up 4.1 - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 5.75, down 0.03; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 6.43, down 0.21 [2] Industry News - As of November 4, 2025, according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 78,625 lots, an increase of 3267 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 123,469 lots, a decrease of 6936 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 44,844 lots, a decrease of 10,203 lots from the previous week - As of the end of November 2025, according to statistics from the Cotton Information Network, the national cotton commercial inventory was 4.6836 million tons, an increase of 1.753 million tons from the previous month, a growth rate of 59.82%, and 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year, a growth rate of 0.21%. Among them, as of the end of November, the cotton inventory in Xinjiang was 3.7905 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.4497 million tons, and 76,400 tons lower than the same period last year - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures closed higher on Tuesday. Traders digested the monthly supply - demand report released by the US Department of Agriculture, which showed that the US cotton production and ending inventory forecasts were raised. The ICE March cotton futures contract rose 0.18 cents, or 0.28%, to settle at 63.86 cents per pound [2]