瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20251210

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Suggest light - position short - term long trading at low prices and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 95,980 yuan/ton, up 3,180 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was - 183,582 lots, down 781 lots; the position of the main contract was 605,453 lots, up 30,032 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts was - 760 yuan/ton, down 2,100 yuan; the warehouse receipt of GZEX was 13,680 lots/ton, up 760 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 90,250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was - 3,280 yuan/ton, down 3,230 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 1,170 US dollars/ton, down 30 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite was 10,025 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) was 3,894 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 53,980 tons, up 2,450 tons; the monthly import volume was 23,880.69 tons, up 4,283.79 tons; the monthly export volume was 245.91 tons, up 95.10 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 47%, unchanged; the monthly output of power batteries was 170,600 MWh, up 19,400 MWh [2] Downstream and Application - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China was 157,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium iron phosphate was 39,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1,772,000 vehicles, up 155,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume was 1,715,000 vehicles, up 111,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate was 46.75%, up 0.66%; the cumulative sales volume was 12,943,000 vehicles, up 3,193,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume was 256,000 vehicles, up 34,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume was 2,014,000 vehicles, up 956,000 vehicles [2] Option Situation - The total call position was 114,079 lots, up 6,315 lots; the total put position was 77,882 lots, up 3,650 lots; the put - call ratio of total positions was 68.27%, down 0.6136%; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV was 0.31%, down 0.0202% [2] Industry News - Qinghai Province plans to build a world - class modern salt - lake industrial system and develop a salt - lake resource industry worth hundreds of billions [2] - In November, the CPI decreased 0.1% month - on - month and increased 0.7% year - on - year; the PPI increased 0.1% month - on - month and decreased 2.2% year - on - year [2] - In 2025, global trade volume will increase by about 7% (an increase of 2.2 trillion US dollars) to a record of 35 trillion US dollars [2] - During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, the retail industry should focus on quality and service - driven development [2] Market Analysis - The main contract of lithium carbonate fluctuated strongly, up 2.56% at the close. The position increased, the spot was at a discount to the futures, and the basis weakened [2] - On the fundamentals, the price of lithium ore weakened slightly. The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to increase, and the demand has become more active [2] - In the option market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility decreased slightly [2] - Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has double lines near the 0 - axis and the red bars are expanding [2]