瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20251210

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall price of industrial silicon continued to decline due to supply factors today, and attention should be paid to the support level of 8,000 yuan/ton [2]. - From the supply side, in Southwest China, the dry season in Yunnan and Sichuan has led to a significant increase in electricity prices, high production costs, and a sharp decline in the operating rate. In Northwest China, production maintains a high - operating state, offsetting the output contraction in the Southwest. However, it is necessary to focus on whether there are fluctuations in the operating rate in the Northwest next week [2]. - From the demand side, the actual demand for industrial silicon from polysilicon, organic silicon, and exports is insufficient, and only the demand from the aluminum alloy field is relatively stable, but it is difficult to change the overall weak demand pattern [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan; the position of the main contract was 171,757 lots, a decrease of 13,514 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 29,059 lots, an increase of 91 lots; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 7,780 lots, an increase of 252 lots; the price difference between the January - February contracts was - 10 yuan, an increase of 15 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon was 9,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract was 950 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan; the spot price of DMC was 13,625 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 2,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan; the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 451,660 tons, an increase of 48,860 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 22.28 tons, a decrease of 1,917.57 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 45,073.34 tons, a decrease of 25,159.39 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 21,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 6.5 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 16.05 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 30,923.01 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 74.84%, unchanged; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.682 million tons, a decrease of 94,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 30,923.01 tons, an increase of 7,427.67 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Beijing Economic - Technological Development Area Management Committee issued the "Several Measures for Promoting High - Quality Green and Low - Carbon Development (Version 2.0)", which mentioned promoting the large - scale development of distributed photovoltaics, with the proportion of photovoltaic installation on factory roofs in new industrial plant projects not less than 50% [2].