合成橡胶产业日报-20251210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The butadiene rubber market this week is mainly affected by news factors of natural rubber and butadiene. With no clear positive factors in the supply - demand fundamentals, the continuous price - pressing by downstream buyers leads to weak trading performance. The inventory of sample production enterprises increases, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreases slightly. With the gradual resumption of the operation of previously - shut - down enterprises to the normal level, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased last week, but the shipment pace of each tire enterprise is slow. In the short term, the production - control behavior of enterprises still exists, and the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be limited. The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,300 - 10,800 in the short term [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,605 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 155 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 80,546, with a week - on - week increase of 4,137; the 1 - 2 spread of synthetic rubber is - 30 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber is 4,340 tons, with no week - on - week change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 (Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the mainstream price of BR9000 (Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 10,450 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the mainstream price of BR9000 (Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 10,550 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the mainstream price of BR9000 (Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 10,750 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the basis of synthetic rubber is - 105 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 155 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is at $61.94 per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of $0.55; WTI crude oil is at $58.25 per barrel; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is $563 per ton, with a week - on - week decrease of $8.5; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is $745 per ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is $860 per ton; the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 7,250 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the weekly production capacity of butadiene is 159,400 tons; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 70.4%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.57 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 41,100 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6,200 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 56.11%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.12 percentage points [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 130,100 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 7,500 tons and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 73.53%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.34 percentage points; the production profit of butadiene rubber is 484 yuan/ton; the social inventory of butadiene rubber is 32,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons; the manufacturer inventory of butadiene rubber is 27,100 tons; the trader inventory of butadiene rubber is 5,230 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 310 tons; the operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 70.92%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.73 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic full - steel tires is 63.5%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.17 percentage points; the monthly output of full - steel tires is 1.301 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5.831 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 663,000 pieces; the inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 39.51 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.44 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 44.95 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of December 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a week - on - week increase of 2.33 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points. The resumption of production of previously - shut - down sample enterprises during the week boosted the overall capacity utilization rate. In November, the domestic output of butadiene rubber was 130,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,500 tons and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber in November was 68.13%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.27 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.53 percentage points. As of December 4, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber was 32,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons and a week - on - week decrease of 0.34%. Some tight - supply spot resources were replenished this period. However, due to the continuous price - pressing by downstream buyers, the trading performance was weak. The inventory of butadiene rubber production enterprises increased last week, and the inventory of trading enterprises decreased slightly. The temporary shutdown and maintenance of some Shandong plants will lead to a slight reduction in supply, and there is an expectation that the inventory of butadiene rubber production enterprises and trading enterprises will both decrease slightly [2] 3.6 Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [2]