Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation, and the overall inventory accumulation rate has narrowed compared to the previous period Overseas ship arrivals remain at a high level, rubber prices are fluctuating downward, and tire companies are making appropriate low - price purchases according to demand, with the overall purchasing sentiment slightly improving The overall capacity utilization rate of domestic tire companies increased last week, but the shipment pace of each tire company is slow, and the short - term production control behavior of enterprises still exists, so the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be limited The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,900 - 15,500 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,300 [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,215 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 230 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is 5 yuan, with a daily increase of 20 yuan The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,270 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 45 yuan; the 1 - 2 spread is - 30 yuan, with a daily decrease of 15 yuan The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,945 yuan, with a daily increase of 40 yuan The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 126,049 lots, with a daily decrease of 1,636 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 59,310 lots, with a daily increase of 3,166 lots The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 26,330 lots, with a daily increase of 1,048 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 10,799 lots, with a daily decrease of 504 lots The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 53,430 tons, with a daily increase of 7,400 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 60,279 tons, with a daily increase of 3,527 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,850 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 150 yuan; the price of Vietnam 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,150 yuan/ton, with no daily change The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,815 US dollars/ton, with no daily change; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,810 US dollars/ton, with no daily change The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,350 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 30 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,300 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 30 yuan The price of Qilu Petrochemical styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,000 yuan/ton, with no daily change; the price of Qilu Petrochemical cis - butadiene BR9000 is 10,600 yuan/ton, with no daily change The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 365 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 80 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 635 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 50 yuan The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,810 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 34 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 540 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 224 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 58.14 Thai baht/kg, with a daily decrease of 0.37 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 55.75 Thai baht/kg, with a daily decrease of 1.4 Thai baht The market reference price of rubber latex of Thai raw rubber is 55 Thai baht/kg, with no daily change; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a daily increase of 0.85 Thai baht The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 125 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 23.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 43.2 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 70.2 US dollars The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 126,100 tons, with an increase of 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 256,400 tons, with a decrease of 61,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.5%, with a weekly increase of 0.17 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 70.92%, with a weekly increase of 1.73 percentage points The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 39.51 days, with a weekly decrease of 0.44 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 44.95 days, with a weekly decrease of 0.28 days The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, with an increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, with an increase of 6.63 million pieces [2] Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 14.07%, with a daily increase of 0.77 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying is 15.86%, with a daily increase of 0.42 percentage points The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.24%, with a daily decrease of 0.47 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.24%, with a daily decrease of 0.49 percentage points [2] Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% from 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year From January to November this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% As of December 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area was 488,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons The bonded area inventory was 73,900 tons, an increase of 2.08%; the general trade inventory was 414,800 tons, an increase of 1.38% As of December 4, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a month - on - month increase of 2.33 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a month - on - month increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points [2]
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20251210
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-10 10:40