瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20251210

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term total inventory of domestic methanol producers may accumulate. The port inventory has decreased significantly, and the future unloading of foreign vessels should be monitored. The overall olefin industry's operating rate has increased, but it is expected to decline due to the planned maintenance of Ningbo Fude. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2000 - 2090 in the short term [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2053 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread is - 76 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 642135 lots, down 81461 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 161954 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8722, unchanged [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2070 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1975 yuan/ton, unchanged. The East - Northwest price spread is 95 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is 17 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton. CFR China Main Port is 242 dollars/ton, unchanged; CFR Southeast Asia is 317 dollars/ton, unchanged. FOB Rotterdam is 257 euros/ton, up 1 euro/ton. The China Main Port - Southeast Asia price spread is - 75 dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 4.58 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.28 dollars/million British thermal units [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 83.06 tons, down 10.82 tons; in South China ports, it is 40.38 tons, down 0.68 tons. The methanol import profit is - 2.58 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume is 161.26 tons, up 18.57 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 361500 tons, down 12200 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate is 89.09%, unchanged [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate is 42.91%, down 0.07%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 7.88%, unchanged; the acetic acid operating rate is 69.62%, down 3.44%; the MTBE operating rate is 69.97%, unchanged; the olefin operating rate is 90.82%, up 0.89%. The methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 797 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 19.89%, down 0.48%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 18.5%, down 0.27%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options is 18.51%, down 1.55% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - As of December 10, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample producers is 35.28 tons, down 0.87 tons (2.40% MoM), and the pending orders are 20.75 tons, down 3.22 tons (13.45% MoM). The total port inventory is 123.44 tons, down 11.5 tons. As of December 4, the domestic methanol - to - olefin device capacity utilization rate is 91.78%, up 0.88% MoM [3].