瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20251210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US "small non - farm" ADP has recovered, and the Fed has "ample room" to cut interest rates by more than 25 basis points. The upstream zinc ore imports have declined, and domestic refinery profits are shrinking, with expected production drops. Overseas supply remains tight, and China may turn into a net exporter. The downstream market is entering the off - season, with the real estate sector dragging down, while the auto sector has some policy - supported highlights. The zinc price is expected to adjust at a high level, and attention should be paid to the battle at the 23,000 - yuan mark [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 23,075 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 02 contract spread is - 25 yuan/ton. The LME three - month zinc quote is 3,089 US dollars/ton. The total Shanghai zinc open interest is 203,288 lots, and the net open interest of the top 20 is 12,154 lots. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 91,916 tons, and LME inventory is 58,150 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 (Spot Market) - The 0 zinc spot price on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 23,070 yuan/ton, and the 1 zinc spot price in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,850 yuan/ton. The basis of the main ZN contract is - 5 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is 162.99 US dollars/ton. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 19,780 yuan/ton, and the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,250 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 21,000 tons, and the ILZSG balance is 47,900 tons. Global zinc mine output is 1.0976 million tons, and domestic refined zinc production is 625,000 tons. Zinc ore imports are 340,900 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 18,836.76 tons, and exports are 8,518.67 tons. Zinc social inventory is 132,500 tons. The output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, and the sales volume is 2.28 million tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The newly - started housing area is 49,061.39 million square meters, and the completed housing area is 34,861 million square meters. Automobile production is 3.279 million vehicles, and air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for zinc is 14.25%. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.82%, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.93% [3] 3.7 Industry News - The US "small non - farm" ADP has recovered, with private enterprises adding an average of 4,750 jobs per week. The Fed has "ample room" to cut interest rates. The Bank of Japan governor hinted at future interest rate hikes. Trump is considering candidates for the Fed chairman and may adjust tariffs [3]