铂钯金期货日报-20251210

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - Fed rate cut expectations boost the precious metals market sentiment, with London platinum and palladium prices breaking through the trading range, and the main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange showing a slightly stronger intraday performance. In the medium to long term, platinum may continue to see price support under expectations of Fed easing, a continued structural deficit in supply and demand, and long - term expansion of demand in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand outlook is weakening due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new energy vehicles, with the market shifting from supply shortage to surplus. However, the bullish sentiment driven by rate cut expectations may support prices, and its current low price may make it a cost - effective option again. Recently, palladium prices have shown stronger resilience than platinum, and a subsequent catch - up rally may continue [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - Platinum's main contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram) is 444.45, up 4.75; palladium's main contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram) is 387.65, up 4.15. Platinum's main contract open interest (daily, lots) is 10387, down 277; palladium's main contract open interest (daily, lots) is 3179, up 90 [2] Spot Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) is 438.26, up 7.18; the Yangtze River palladium spot price is 366, up 6. The platinum main contract basis (daily, yuan/gram) is - 6.19, up 2.43; the palladium main contract basis (daily, yuan/gram) is - 21.65, up 1.85. Platinum's CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly, contracts) are 9966, down 243; palladium's CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly, contracts) are 3003, down 342 [2] Supply and Demand - The total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.4 tons, down 0.8 tons; the total annual supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293 tons, down 5 tons. The total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.6 tons, up 25.6 tons; the total annual demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287 tons, down 27 tons [2] Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index is 99.24, up 0.27; the VIX volatility index is 16.93, up 0.14; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.92%, up 0.01 [2] Industry News - The Fed is expected to cut rates for the third consecutive time with internal disagreements, and officials may hint at a pause. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market has highly priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut. White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett believes there is still much room for the Fed to cut rates. US President Trump said he will use support for immediate and substantial rate cuts as a "litmus test" for the new Fed chair and may adjust tariff policies to lower some commodity prices. ADP data shows that US private employers added an average of 4,750 jobs per week in the four weeks ending November 22, ending four consecutive weeks of job losses, and US job openings in October were 7.67 million, far exceeding the expected 7.117 million. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank will continue to slowly adjust monetary easing until it achieves a sustainable 2% inflation target and the policy rate returns to the natural rate level, and will increase bond purchases in "special cases" due to the recent rapid rise in interest rates [2] Key Points of Attention - At 03:00 on December 11, the Fed will announce its December FOMC meeting interest rate decision [2]