瑞达期货纯碱玻璃产业日报-20251210

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the decline of glass prices is expected to slow down, and attention should be paid to the upper resistance level of 1030 yuan/ton. The price of soda ash continues to decline, breaking through the previous low - level support, and subsequent attention should be paid to the integer support level of 1000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the forward policy expectations have positive signals, and the "Three Major Projects" fund allocation is accelerating, which is expected to support the demand for infrastructure glass in Q1 2026 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the soda ash main contract is 1094 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan; the closing price of the glass main contract is 964 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The soda ash - glass price difference is 130 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan. The positions of the soda ash and glass main contracts decreased by 79,430 hands and 54,739 hands respectively. The net positions of the top 20 soda ash decreased by 3,031, while that of glass increased by 5,254. The exchange warehouse receipts of soda ash decreased by 724 tons, and those of glass increased by 303 tons. The basis of soda ash increased by 31 yuan/ton, and that of glass increased by 16 yuan/ton. The spread between the January and May glass contracts decreased by 6, and that of soda ash decreased by 3 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of North China heavy - soda ash and Central China heavy - soda ash remained unchanged at 1120 yuan/ton and 1300 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of East China light - soda ash and Central China light - soda ash were stable at 1400 yuan/ton and 1165 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Shahe glass sheets decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 968 yuan/ton, and the price of Central China glass sheets remained at 1110 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of soda ash plants increased by 0.66 percentage points to 80.74%, and the weekly operating rate of float glass enterprises decreased by 0.89 percentage points to 73.63%. The weekly in - production capacity of glass decreased by 0.28 million tons/year to 15.44 million tons/year, and the number of in - production glass production lines decreased by 2 to 218. The weekly inventory of soda ash enterprises decreased by 3.61 million tons to 150.25 million tons, and the weekly inventory of glass enterprises decreased by 2.92 million heavy boxes to 59.442 million heavy boxes [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of newly - started real estate area was 49,061.39 million square meters, an increase of 3,662.39 million square meters, and the cumulative value of real - estate completion area was 34,861 million square meters, an increase of 3,732 million square meters [2] 3.5 Industry News - Some soda ash plants had production adjustments, such as Jiangsu Jingshen Chemical reducing production, Henan Zhongyuan Chemical maintaining stable production, Hubei Shuanghuan keeping stable output, Henan Haohua Junhua starting operation, Tangshan Sanyou reducing production to 70% load, Shandong Haitian Biological Chemical resuming production, Shandong Haihua reducing load, Zhongyan Anhui Hongsifang resuming load, Henan Jinshan reducing production for maintenance, and Chongqing Xiangyu Yanhua resuming production. For glass, the supply contraction trend will be more obvious next week, and the average daily melting volume in Q1 2026 is expected to drop to around 155,000 tons. The regional supply shows a pattern of "local contraction, overall looseness" [2] 3.6 View Summary - The demand side is the core factor suppressing the current market. In the short - term, the decline in construction site start - up rates in the north, limited demand pull from the automotive industry and the export market, and weak terminal receiving willingness have a negative impact on the market. However, forward policy expectations are positive, and the "Three Major Projects" are expected to support infrastructure glass demand in Q1 2026 [2] 3.7 Prompt Attention - This week, the operating rate of soda ash plants declined. Although some plants such as Zhongyan Kunshan increased production and some completed maintenance, many other plants continued maintenance or reduced load. There is no large - scale maintenance plan for subsequent soda ash plants for now, and the supply is expected to increase next week. The demand from the glass industry, the largest downstream of soda ash, has decreased. If the cold - repair of glass production lines is implemented, the demand for heavy - soda ash will further decrease. Although the inventory of glass manufacturers has decreased to a low level, the short - term driving effect on soda ash demand is limited and there are downward risks [2]