2025年中国购物者报告，系列二：渠道破局：中国快消品市场的机会和挑战

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Chinese fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market shows signs of stabilization in 2025, with a sales growth of 1.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters, driven by a 3.8% increase in volume and a 2.4% decrease in average price [9][12][10] - Lower-tier cities (third to fifth tier) contributed approximately 80% of the market growth, benefiting from urbanization, brand penetration strategies, and the expansion of new retail channels [9][20] - The report highlights a shift in consumer behavior, where price sensitivity is balanced with quality considerations, leading to a stabilization in average prices after a significant decline in previous years [10][43] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The FMCG market in China experienced a mild growth in 2025, with a notable performance in the first quarter, which saw a 2.7% increase year-on-year [12] - Sales in lower-tier cities are a key growth driver, with a volume increase of 4-6% offsetting price declines [20][39] Category Dynamics - Packaged food and household care categories led the growth with increases of 3.4% and 3.3% respectively, while the beverage category faced a decline of 1.1% [24][25] - The personal care category showed signs of recovery with a 1.1% growth after several years of decline [34] Price Dynamics - The "consumption upgrade" trend continued into 2025, with average prices decreasing by 2.4%, although the rate of decline has slowed compared to 2024 [10][43] - Promotional activities have decreased, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior towards a more balanced consideration of price and quality [13][43] Emerging Channel Dynamics - New retail formats such as warehouse membership stores, snack collection stores, and discount stores are rapidly expanding, with growth rates of 40%, 51%, and 92% respectively [54][55] - E-commerce channels also showed strong growth, with an increase from 2% to 7% in the first three quarters of 2025 [54][56] Implications for Brands - Brands must adapt to the evolving retail landscape, leveraging data and technology to create demand and navigate the fragmented market [53] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding consumer dynamics to seize opportunities in the new growth cycle [53]