广发期货日评-20251210

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information available Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The 12th Fed FOMC meeting will be held, and continued rate cuts are still the likely scenario, but the market is still worried about hawkish statements, leading to a significant correction in pro - cyclical assets. A - shares' trading volume has increased recently, and after confirming the stage bottom, the low - volatility period is expected to end with a rise in volatility [3]. - The Fed's easing expectations are continuously rising, leading to a general increase in precious metals. Silver has broken through and reached a new high, but the upward momentum has weakened due to weak physical delivery demand and gold price stagnation [3]. - The EC main contract is oscillating upward, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. - Raw material price drops are dragging down steel prices. The strategy of going long on rebar and short on iron ore has been exited, and the strategy of narrowing the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar in January can continue to be held [3]. - The supply and demand imbalance of ultra - long - term bond varieties is difficult to reverse in the short term. If market sentiment improves, light - position long positions can be taken in bond varieties within 10 years, and 30 - year varieties should be avoided for now. The bond market's sharp decline stage may have passed, and bond futures may return to oscillation in the short term [3]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Equity Index - Equity index futures opened low and closed low, while the STAR Market and ChiNext showed an upward trend. After more than a month of low volatility, an increase in volatility is expected. Short - term single - side futures long - position operations are difficult. On dips, light - position and segmented layouts can be made for the bull spread of CSI 1000 put options [3]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures rose across the board and may return to oscillation in the short term. The 10 - year Treasury bond faces resistance near the 1.85% stage high, and the T2603 contract may find support near 107.6. The 30 - 10Y yield spread has reached this year's high. Single - side strategies suggest waiting and seeing, and curve strategies tend to steepen [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices have entered an oscillation phase near $4200. Short - term single - side positions should wait and see, and a strategy of selling out - of - the - money options on both sides can be used to earn time value. Silver's upward momentum has weakened. Platinum and palladium's market fluctuations have narrowed, and an intraday short - term high - selling and low - buying operation strategy is recommended [3]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC2602 main contract is oscillating upward, and short - term oscillation is expected [3]. Steel and Related Metals - For steel, raw material price drops are dragging down prices. For iron ore, with falling hot metal production and increasing port inventories, it has shifted from high - level oscillation to weakness, with an expected range of 730 - 780. For coking coal, the price cut range in production areas has expanded, and the Mongolian coal price has declined, with the futures price falling weakly. For coke, the first round of price cuts in December has been implemented, and the port trade price has led the decline, with an expected range of 1450 - 1600 [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - For copper, downstream demand is weakening, and attention should be paid to the structural risk of overseas inventories. Long - term long positions can be held, and short - term long positions should take profits on rallies. For aluminum, due to repeated macro - level disturbances, attention should be paid to the final decision of the Fed FOMC meeting. For zinc, exports support the price, and attention should be paid to cross - market reverse arbitrage opportunities. For tin, the fundamentals are strong, and previous long positions can be continued, with a strategy of buying on dips [3]. New Energy - Related Commodities - For industrial silicon, due to the decline in coking coal prices and the expected production control of polysilicon, the price has dropped, and positions are recommended to be closed. For polysilicon, with the news of the establishment of a platform company, the futures price has continued to rise, and it is recommended to wait and see. For lithium carbonate, the market is in a news vacuum, and the price is oscillating weakly, with a reference range of 92,000 - 96,000 [3]. Chemical Products - For PX, the medium - term supply - demand outlook is tight, and it has support at low levels, with short - term high - level oscillation. For PTA, the supply - demand outlook is weak, and the oil price is also weak, with short - term oscillation and a focus on the low - level positive arbitrage opportunity between TA5 - 9. For short - fiber, the supply - demand outlook is weak, and the processing fee is mainly being compressed [3]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans and rapeseeds, the USDA report has no highlights, and the domestic supply is abundant, resulting in narrow - range oscillation. For hogs, the demand for curing bacon is increasing, leading to a resonance between futures and spot prices, with an upward - oscillating trend. For corn, the supply volume has increased, and the futures price is running weakly [3].