原油成品油早报-20251211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated and closed higher. The G7 and the EU considered banning Russian export shipping services instead of the oil price cap. Ukraine attacked a refinery and a small port of Rosneft. The CPC export was disrupted and Kazakhstan's daily oil production declined, leading to a rebound in absolute prices. Fundamentally, global oil inventories increased, Saudi Aramco lowered the January selling price of Arab Light crude oil to Asia, and US EIA crude oil and refined product inventories also rose. Recently, the US refinery operating rate recovered above 94%, and the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel in Europe and the US declined. In the short term, the diesel fundamentals are stronger. Attention should be paid to the seasonal regression of the gasoline - diesel price spread. The Brent price range in the fourth quarter is $55 - 65 per barrel, maintaining a high - short strategy, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short term as the valuation deviation is not high [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily News - The Trump administration is considering more tanker - related operations in relation to Venezuela and Iran [3] - Venezuelan President Maduro said Venezuela is ready to "knock out the teeth of the North American empire" if necessary. Trump confirmed that the US seized an oil tanker near Venezuela on December 10 [3][4] 3.2 Inventory - US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending December 5 was - 1.812 million barrels, expected - 2.31 million barrels, and the previous value was 0.574 million barrels [4] - US EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory for the week ending December 5 was 0.248 million barrels, and the previous value was 0.25 million barrels [4] - US EIA gasoline inventory for the week ending December 5 was 6.397 million barrels, expected 2.764 million barrels, and the previous value was 4.518 million barrels [4] - US EIA refined oil inventory for the week ending December 5 was 2.502 million barrels, expected 1.943 million barrels, and the previous value was 2.059 million barrels [4] - US EIA Cushing crude oil inventory in Oklahoma for the week ending December 5 was 0.308 million barrels, and the previous value was - 0.457 million barrels [4] - US EIA refinery utilization rate for the week ending December 5 was 94.5%, expected 94.4%, and the previous value was 94.1% [4] 3.3 Weekly View - Oil prices fluctuated and closed higher this week. The G7 and EU's consideration of banning Russian shipping services, Ukraine's attacks, and CPC export disruptions led to a price rebound. Fundamentally, inventories are rising, refinery operating rates are recovering, and crack spreads are falling. The short - term diesel fundamentals are stronger. The fourth - quarter Brent price range is $55 - 65 per barrel, with a high - short strategy and short - term waiting and seeing advised [4]