大越期货燃料油早报-20251211

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market will remain well - supplied from December to January, and downstream marine fuel oil demand lacks support; Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil market is in a supply - surplus situation which will last for some time [3] - Overnight crude oil fluctuated. The Fed's rate cut and neutral - dovish remarks partially stabilized the market, and the US seizure of a Venezuelan oil tanker boosted fuel oil prices. FU2601 is expected to trade in the 2360 - 2410 range, and LU2602 in the 2960 - 3000 range [3] - The market is driven by the resonance of geopolitical risks on the supply side and neutral demand, with potential risks including the breakdown of OPEC+ unity and the escalation of war risks [4] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The previous day's FU主力合约期货价 was 2443, the current value is 2420, down 23 (-0.94%); LU主力合约期货价 was 3014, the current value is 3006, down 8 (-0.27%); FU基差 was 19, the current value is -7, down 26.31 (-139.64%); LU基差 was 25, the current value is 11, down 14 (-55.56%) [5] - The previous day's prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil, Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil, Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil, Middle East high - sulfur fuel oil, and Singapore diesel were 430.00, 442.00, 333.15, 418.50, 303.37, and 628.21 respectively. The current values are 432.00, 444.00, 330.69, 415.78, 301.14, and 612.77 respectively, with corresponding changes of 2.00 (0.47%), 2.00 (0.45%), -2.46 (-0.74%), -2.72 (-0.65%), -2.23 (-0.74%), and -15.44 (-2.46%) [6] 2. Long - Short Concerns - Bullish factors: Russia's fuel export restrictions; cancellation of US - Russia talks and sanctions against Russian oil - related enterprises [4] - Bearish factors: Optimism on the demand side remains to be verified; upstream crude oil is under pressure [4] 3. Fundamental Data - Fundamentals: Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market is well - supplied from December to January, and downstream demand lacks support; Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil market is in supply surplus [3] - Basis: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil basis is -7 yuan/ton, low - sulfur fuel oil basis is 11 yuan/ton, and the spot is at par with the futures [3] - Inventory: Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of December 3 was 2123.9 million barrels, an increase of 64 million barrels [3] - Disk: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [3] - Main positions: High - sulfur main positions are short, with an increase in short positions; low - sulfur main positions are long, with an increase in long positions [3] 4. Spread Data - The report mentions the high - low sulfur futures spread, but no specific data analysis is provided [12] 5. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from September 24 to December 3 is provided, showing fluctuations in inventory levels [8]