集运早报-20251211

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The 12 - contract follows the delivery logic. MSK's Tuesday price cut for the last - week freight rate to $2300 may lead to a lower settlement price for the 12 - contract, with a central price of $2300 [3]. - The 02 - contract has a moderately high valuation. In the short - term, it may fluctuate due to the expected peak season in January. In the long - run, the driving force is upward because of the strong and recovering cargo volume. However, the high shipping capacity in January 2026 may suppress the price peak. Currently, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - The 04 - contract has limited short - term downside space. Pay attention to the short - selling opportunities when the 04 - contract may rise following the near - month contracts [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Data - Contract Prices and Changes: The EC2512 contract closed at 1655.1, down 0.58%; the EC2602 contract closed at 1665.2, up 2.80%; the EC2604 contract closed at 1080.7, up 0.66%; the EC2606 contract closed at 1225.6, up 0.53%; the EC2608 contract closed at 1378.9, down 0.07%; the EC2610 contract closed at 1025.0, up 0.56% [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of EC2512 was 321, and the open interest was 3169, down 114; the trading volume of EC2602 was 35894, and the open interest was 31382; the trading volume of EC2604 was 3703, and the open interest was 19219, down 159; the trading volume of EC2606 was 380, and the open interest was 2274, down 69; the trading volume of EC2608 was 170, and the open interest was 1549, down 25; the trading volume of EC2610 was 273, and the open interest was 4207, up 6 [2]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: For example, the EC2512 - 2504 spread was 5/4.4, with a day - on - day change of - 16.7 and a week - on - week change of 12.9; the EC2512 - 2602 spread was - 10.1, with a day - on - day change of - 55.0 and a week - on - week change of - 109.5; the EC2502 - 2604 spread was 584.5, with a day - on - day change of 38.3 and a week - on - week change of 1224 [2]. - Indicator Data: The forward - looking futures index (frequency: electricity - new, announced on 2025/12/8) was 1509.10, up 1.72% from the previous period and down 0.28% compared to the period before the previous one; the CCFI on 2025/12/5 was 1447.56, down 0.12% from the previous period; the NCFI on 2025/12/5 was 967.55, down 5.57% from the previous period [2]. European Line Spot Freight Situation - Weekly Spot Freight Rates: In Week 50, MSK's opening price dropped to $2200, with the central price at $2200, equivalent to 1550 points on the disk; in Week 51, MSK's opening price was $2400; in Week 52, MSK's opening price was $2300 (down $100 from the previous week) [4]. - Price Adjustments: YML cut the freight rate for late December to $2650 on Tuesday; MSK announced a price increase for January, with the freight rates for 20 - foot and 40 - foot containers on the European line raised to $2275 and $3500 respectively [4]. Related News - On December 10, 2025, the Israeli army launched air strikes and shelling on parts of Khan Younis in Gaza under its control; Hamas officials stated that disarming the Palestinians was equivalent to taking their lives [5]. - On December 11, 2025, Trump said he planned to announce the members of the "Gaza Peace Committee" early next year. Many world leaders wanted to join this committee established under a Gaza plan that brokered a fragile cease - fire between Israel and Hamas [5].