大越期货纯碱早报-20251211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak. With high supply, declining terminal demand, and inventory above the 5 - year average, the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. The short - term trend is expected to be mainly in a volatile and downward pattern [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: Alkali plants are at a high - production level, with the second - phase of Yuanxing expected to be put into operation before the end of the year, leading to an expected abundant supply. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level, indicating a bearish outlook [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,100 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SA2601 is 1,094 yuan/ton, with a basis of 6 yuan. The futures are at a discount to the spot, showing a neutral situation [2]. - Inventory: The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.5386 million tons, a decrease of 3.07% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][34]. - Market trend: The price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, suggesting a bearish trend [2]. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - Expectation: Given the weak fundamentals of soda ash, it is expected to be mainly in a volatile and downward movement in the short term [2]. 3.2 Factors Affecting Soda Ash - Positive factors: Equipment problems have caused some enterprises to reduce production for maintenance, resulting in a slow recovery of soda ash supply [3]. - Negative factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - expansion plans this year. The industry's output is at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass has cut production, leading to a weakening demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. 3.4 Soda Ash Futures Market - Closing price: The closing price of the main contract is 1,094 yuan/ton. - Spot price: The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1,100 yuan/ton. - Basis: The main basis is 6 yuan, with a change of - 220.00% [6]. 3.5 Soda Ash Spot Market - Price: The low - end market price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - Production profit: The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in North China is - 118.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the co - production process in East China is - 220 yuan/ton, both at historically low levels [14]. - Operating rate and production volume: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 80.74%, and the weekly production volume is 703,900 tons, including 381,500 tons of heavy soda ash, with production at a historically high level [17][20]. - Production capacity changes: In 2023, the new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [21]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Sales - to - production ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 108.16% [24]. - Downstream demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 157,200 tons, with an operating rate of 74.85% [27]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 1.5386 million tons, a decrease of 3.07% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].