大越期货玻璃早报-20251211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of glass are weak. The production profit recovery is sluggish, supply contraction is less than expected, downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real estate drag, and inventory is at a historically high level. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. - The main logic is that glass supply has stabilized at a low level, deep - processing factory orders are dismal, and glass factory inventories are rising, leading to an expected low - level weak - fluctuation in glass prices [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 984 yuan/ton to 964 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.03%. - The spot price of Shahe Safety large boards decreased from 972 yuan/ton to 968 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.41%. - The main basis changed from - 12 yuan/ton to 4 yuan/ton, a change of - 133.33% [7]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large boards in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 968 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. Fundamentals - Cost Side No specific content about the cost - side analysis is provided other than the mention of glass production profit. Fundamentals - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 220, with an operating rate of 74.51%, at a historically low level in the same period. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 157,200 tons, and the production capacity is at a historically low level in the same period [25][27]. Fundamentals - Demand - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.7082 million tons [30]. - There are mentions of housing sales, new construction, construction, completion areas, and downstream processing factory operations and orders, but no specific data is provided other than the consumption data. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 59.442 million weight boxes, a decrease of 4.68% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [43]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Production (10,000 tons) | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Consumption (10,000 tons) | Production Growth Rate | Consumption Growth Rate | Net Import Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 5354 | 5263 | 5229 | | | - 1.734 | | 2018 | 5162 | 5098 | 5091 | - 3.59% | - 2.64% | - 1.26% | | 2019 | 5052 | 5027 | 5061 | - 2.13% | - 0.59% | - 0.50% | | 2020 | 5000 | 5014 | 5064 | - 1.03% | 0.06% | 0.289 | | 2021 | 5494 | 5507 | 5412 | 9.88% | 6.87% | 0.244 | | 2022 | 5463 | 5418 | 5327 | - 0.56% | - 1.57% | - 0.834 | | 2023 | 5301 | 5252 | 5372 | - 2.97% | 0.84% | - 0.934 | | 2024E | 5510 | 5461 | 5310 | 3.94% | - 1.15% | - 0.90% | [44] Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: "Coal - to - Gas" in the Shahe area and cold repairs in the industry have led to production losses [4]. - Negative Factors: The real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the number of orders for glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level in the same period; the capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [5].