大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251211

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show weak and volatile trends today. The fundamentals of both are oversupplied, with downstream demand generally weak, although propane price increases are providing some support to the market [4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspending the increase from January to March 2026. Coal prices have fallen, improving coal - based production profits. Agricultural film demand is weak, while packaging film demand is mainly driven by rigid needs, with some improvement in certain regions. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 6,580 (-60), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -19, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.3%, considered neutral [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 508,000 tons (+11,000), considered neutral [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - Main Position: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, indicating a bullish trend [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is showing a weak downward trend. With an oversupply in fundamentals, a strong propane price driving the market, neutral industrial inventory, and a decline in downstream demand, it is expected that the PE market will show a weak and volatile trend today [4]. - Likely Influencing Factors: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factors are weak downstream demand year - on - year and significant new production capacity in the fourth quarter. The main logic is oversupply and domestic macro - policies [5]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspending the increase from January to March 2026. Coal prices have fallen, improving coal - based production profits. Plastic weaving has entered the off - season with falling demand, while pipe demand is acceptable. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6,300 (-50), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 138, with a premium/discount ratio of 2.2%, indicating a bullish trend [6]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 537,000 tons (-28,000), considered neutral [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - Main Position: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, but still indicating a bearish trend [6]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is showing a weak downward trend. With an oversupply in fundamentals, a strong propane price driving the market, neutral industrial inventory, and average downstream demand, it is expected that the PP market will show a weak and volatile trend today [6]. - Likely Influencing Factors: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factors are weak downstream demand year - on - year and significant new production capacity in the fourth quarter. The main logic is oversupply and domestic macro - policies [7]. Spot and Futures Market Data - LLDPE: The spot delivery product price is 6,580 (-60), the 05 - contract price is 6,599 (-11), the basis is -19 (-49), the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 508,000 tons (+11,000), and the PE social inventory is 457,000 tons (-30,000) [8]. - PP: The spot delivery product price is 6,300 (-50), the 01 - contract price is 6,162 (-30), the basis is 138 (-20), the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 537,000 tons (-28,000), and the PP social inventory is 315,000 tons (-10,000) [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with a planned 20.5% increase in 2025E. The production, net imports, apparent consumption, and actual consumption have also shown certain trends. For example, the production capacity in 2024 was 3,584.5, with a 12.4% growth rate [13]. - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with a planned 11.0% increase in 2025E. The production, net imports, apparent consumption, and actual consumption have also changed accordingly. For example, the production capacity in 2024 was 4,418.5, with a 13.5% growth rate [15].