建信期货工业硅日报-20251211

1. Report Date - The report is dated December 11, 2025 [2] 2. Research Team - Energy and Chemical Research Team: Researchers include Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG), Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polycrystalline Silicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), and Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] 3. Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices continued to weaken. The closing price of Si2601 was 8,250 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.19%, with a trading volume of 252,510 lots and an open interest of 171,757 lots, a net reduction of 13,514 lots. The price of SI2605 contract was 8,255 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.37%, with a trading volume of 182,012 lots and an open interest of 175,225 lots, a net increase of 10,623 lots. Among the top twenty, long positions increased by 4,741 lots and short positions increased by 7,807 lots [4] - Spot prices continued to loosen. The price of Sichuan 553 was 9,300 yuan/ton, Yunnan 553 was 9,100 yuan/ton; Sichuan 421 was 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 was 9,400 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,500 yuan/ton [4] Market Outlook - Futures prices are expected to continue to be bearish in the future, and the net short positions in the far - month contracts have increased significantly. On the fundamental side, supply is approaching the seasonal low, with the expected output in December around 350,000 tons. On the demand side, the weakening expectation is being realized. The establishment of the polysilicon storage platform is expected to limit the supply of silicon materials, but the short - term output remains stable. The average operating load rate of silicone monomers is 74.29%, a decrease of 2 percentage points from last week. In addition, alloy demand has entered the seasonal off - season. The basis continues to widen, but the industry's bearish driving force is weak. Futures prices should be treated with a bearish mindset and bottom - fishing is not advisable. The price has repeatedly tested the 8,230 level during the day and rebounded. Attention should be paid to the support near the previous low [5] 4. Market News - On December 10, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 7,780 lots, an increase of 252 lots from the previous trading day [6] - The silicone DMC market remained stable. The current DMC quotation is between 13,500 - 14,000 yuan/ton. After the prices of major silicone products were raised, the downstream sentiment was wait - and - see. However, with the continuous fulfillment of pre - sales orders, the inventory pressure of enterprises was not large, and the market is expected to run smoothly in the short term [6]