Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, while futures prices fluctuate and decline. The arbitrage window remains closed. In December, the supply - demand situation is expected to be weak. Although the output decline is adjusted downward, demand is also expected to fall. In the short term, prices will remain in a low - level oscillation, with the main price range shifting to 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the support at 8,000 yuan/ton and coal price changes [1]. Polysilicon - Although the futures price has risen, there is still no official announcement about the storage platform. After the storage platform is established, whether subsequent capacity acquisition and output regulation can be implemented will affect whether the industrial supply - demand can return to balance. Currently, the number of warehouse receipts is increasing. Polysilicon futures may still be in a high - level oscillation. Considering the weak demand, if there is no substantial production cut, the spot price has little upward momentum. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Tin - Macro - sentiment is positive. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the improvement in supply within the year is expected to be limited. The demand in the South China region shows certain resilience, while the demand in the East China region is more obviously suppressed. The tin price is expected to remain strong within the year. It is advisable to hold existing long positions and go long on dips [4]. Copper - The Fed has cut interest rates, and there is still a risk of structural imbalance in global inventories. Terminal demand is suppressed, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. In the short term, the imbalance in supply and inventory drives the rapid increase in copper prices, and price fluctuations may intensify. In the long term, the supply - demand contradiction still exists, supporting the upward movement of the bottom center of copper prices [5]. Zinc - The Fed has cut interest rates as expected, and the export space has opened up, but spot transactions are average, and zinc prices are oscillating. Supply pressure has eased, and demand has improved. The short - term price has limited downward space. Refined zinc exports drive the spot market to tighten, boosting domestic zinc prices. In the future, the repair of the Shanghai - London ratio may drive zinc prices higher. Attention should be paid to the inflection point of TC and changes in refined zinc inventories [8]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina supply is in excess, and prices are expected to remain at the bottom and oscillate. The key to the market's rebound lies in the actual production cut scale and the inflection point of inventory. For electrolytic aluminum, in the short term, prices are expected to remain strong, but high prices will suppress terminal consumption, and there is a risk of a pull - back after a sharp rise. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and inventory changes [10]. Nickel - The supply pressure is still strong, and the upward space is limited. Macro - sentiment has improved slightly. The spot transaction of refined nickel is okay. The price of nickel ore is stable, and the price of nickel iron has increased slightly. Stainless steel demand is weak, and the price of nickel sulfate has declined slightly. Overall, the price driver is weak after the valuation repair. In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate within a range [11]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market is oscillating strongly due to the game between strong cost support and weak demand. The cost is strongly supported by the shortage of scrap aluminum raw materials and the increase in the price of auxiliary materials. The demand is weak because high aluminum prices suppress downstream purchasing willingness. The price is expected to remain in a high - level narrow - range oscillation in the short term [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is oscillating. Macro - factors are temporarily stable. The supply pressure has slightly eased, but the demand in the off - season is weak, and inventory reduction is difficult. In the short term, the market has a certain repair expectation, but the driving force is limited [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is running strongly. The fundamentals remain in a situation of strong supply and demand. The output has increased slightly, and downstream demand is optimistic. However, there are issues such as the resumption of production by large manufacturers and the sustainability of off - season demand. The market is expected to oscillate widely [21]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon - Spot Prices and Basis: The prices of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon, East China SI4210 industrial silicon, and Xinjiang 99 - grade industrial silicon remained unchanged on December 10 compared with December 9. The basis of some varieties has changed significantly [1]. - Monthly Spread: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed significantly, such as the 2512 - 2601 contract with a 120% increase [1]. - Fundamental Data (Monthly): National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17%, and the production in some regions such as Yunnan and Sichuan decreased significantly. The production of organic silicon DMC increased by 3.82%, while the production of polysilicon decreased by 14.48% [1]. - Inventory Changes: Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2.82%, and social inventory increased by 1.45% [1]. Polysilicon - Spot Prices and Basis: The average prices of N - type re -投料 and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type material basis decreased by 9.21% [3]. - Futures Prices and Monthly Spread: The main contract price increased by 0.55%. The monthly spread of some contracts has changed significantly, such as the 录月 - 连一 contract with a - 102.17% change [3]. - Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly): Weekly polysilicon production increased by 7.50%, and monthly production decreased by 14.48%. The import and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers have also changed [3]. - Inventory Changes: Polysilicon inventory increased by 3.56%, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 9.23% [3]. Tin - Spot Prices and Basis: The price of SMM 1 tin increased by 0.22%, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 10.87% [4]. - Import - Export Parity and Ratio: The import loss decreased by 2.15%, and the Shanghai - London ratio remained unchanged [4]. - Monthly Spread: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed, such as the 2512 - 2601 contract with a 35% increase [4]. - Fundamental Data (Monthly): In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, and SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09% [4]. - Inventory Changes: SHEF inventory increased by 7.96%, and LME inventory increased by 19.84% [4]. Copper - Prices and Basis: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by 0.56%, and the premium of some varieties has changed [5]. - Import - Export Parity and Ratio: The import loss decreased by 132.28 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased by 0.16 [5]. - Monthly Spread: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed, such as the 2512 - 2601 contract with a 10 - yuan increase [5]. - Fundamental Data: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%. The import volume of copper concentrate decreased by 0.26%, and the inventory of copper concentrate in domestic mainstream ports increased by 3.75% [5]. - Inventory Changes: Domestic social inventory increased by 0.82%, and SHFE inventory decreased by 9.22% [5]. Zinc - Prices and Spreads: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.52%, and the import loss decreased by 61.84 yuan/ton [8]. - Monthly Spread: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed, such as the 2512 - 2601 contract with a 50 - yuan increase [8]. - Fundamental Data: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%. The import volume decreased by 16.94%, and the export volume increased by 243.79% [8]. - Inventory Changes: The seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots in China decreased by 5.75%, and LME inventory increased by 2.84% [8]. Aluminum and Alumina - Prices and Spreads: The price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 0.50%, and the price of alumina in some regions remained unchanged [10]. - Import - Export Parity and Ratio: The import loss of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 76.1 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased by 0.02 [10]. - Monthly Spread: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed, such as the AL 2512 - 2601 contract with a 35 - yuan decrease [10]. - Fundamental Data: In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82% [10]. - Inventory Changes: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic aluminum decreased by 0.17%, and LME inventory decreased by 0.48% [10]. Nickel - Prices and Basis: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 1.00%, and the premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 3.06% [11]. - Cost of Electrowinning Nickel: The cost of some electrowinning nickel production methods has changed, such as the cost of integrated MHP production of electrowinning nickel increasing by 0.19% [11]. - New Energy Material Prices: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.95%, and the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 0.04% [11]. - Monthly Spread: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 contract with a 120 - yuan increase [11]. - Supply - Demand and Inventory: Chinese refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and the import volume decreased by 65.66%. SHFE inventory increased by 4.23% [11]. Aluminum Alloy - Prices and Spreads: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased by 0.46%, and the refined - scrap price difference of some varieties has changed [14]. - Monthly Spread: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 contract with a 20 - yuan decrease [14]. - Fundamental Data: In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.74%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.84% [14]. - Inventory Changes: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.54% [14]. Stainless Steel - Prices and Spreads: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) remained unchanged, and the futures - spot price difference decreased by 11.70% [18]. - Raw Material Prices: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 0.11%, and the price of Wenzhou 304 scrap stainless steel increased by 0.55% [18]. - Monthly Spread: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 contract with a 70 - yuan decrease [18]. - Fundamental Data: The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China decreased by 0.72%, and the export volume decreased by 14.43% [18]. - Inventory Changes: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 2.06%, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.09% [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Prices and Basis: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.05%, and the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate increased by 1.12% [21]. - Monthly Spread: The monthly spread of some contracts has changed, such as the 2601 - 2602 contract with a 140 - yuan increase [21]. - Fundamental Data: In November, lithium carbonate production increased by 3.35%, and the demand increased by 5.11% [21]. - Inventory Changes: In November, the total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 23.36%, and the inventory of downstream enterprises decreased by 21.13% [21].
《有色》日报-20251211
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-12-11 02:22