Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Methanol: Iranian plants have started to shut down, leading to a resonance rebound in ports and inland areas, with a slight strengthening of the basis. Port inventories have decreased for two consecutive weeks, but there are many floating storage tanks. It is expected to return to inventory accumulation later. The 01 contract on the futures market offers a risk - free arbitrage opportunity for imports, and it is believed that the 01 contract will end with high inventories. It is advisable to do a 1 - 5 reverse spread on rallies [1]. - Polyethylene: The inventory of the two major state - owned petrochemical companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventories, while social inventories remain flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Import profits are around - 200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and other price spreads are fluctuating. LD prices are weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes, as well as new plant commissioning in 2025 [3]. - Polypropylene: Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profits are around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price spreads are neutral. PDH profits are around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable.拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [3]. - PVC: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal overhauls, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to production capacity commissioning and export sustainability. Near - term export orders have declined slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide profits are under pressure due to PVC overhauls. Attention should be paid to subsequent export orders for caustic soda. PVC comprehensive profits are - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工率 [3]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - Price Data: From December 4 to December 10, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801. The prices of methanol in different regions and related indicators such as import profits, basis, and MTO profits changed. For example, the import profit on December 4 was 7, and on December 10, the basis was 25 [1]. - Market Situation: Iranian plants have shut down, causing a resonance rebound in ports and inland areas. Ports have seen two consecutive weeks of inventory reduction, but there are many floating storage tanks. It is expected to return to inventory accumulation later. The 01 contract on the futures market offers an import risk - free arbitrage opportunity [1]. Polyethylene - Price Data: From December 4 to December 10, 2025, prices of Northeast Asian ethylene, various types of polyethylene in different regions, and related indicators such as import profits, basis, and two - oil inventories changed. For example, the import profit on December 4 was 139, and on December 10, the basis was - 30 [3]. - Market Situation: The inventory of the two major state - owned petrochemical companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventories, while social inventories remain flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. Import profits are around - 200 with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, and other price spreads are fluctuating. LD prices are weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently [3]. Polypropylene - Price Data: From December 4 to December 10, 2025, prices of Shandong propylene, Northeast Asian propylene, various types of polypropylene in different regions, and related indicators such as export profits, basis, and two - oil inventories changed. For example, the export profit on December 4 was - 4, and on December 10, the basis was - 70 [3]. - Market Situation: Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price spreads are neutral, and import profits are around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price spreads are neutral. PDH profits are around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. Future supply is expected to increase slightly [3]. PVC - Price Data: From December 4 to December 10, 2025, prices of Northwest calcium carbide, Shandong caustic soda, various types of PVC in different regions, and related indicators such as export profits, comprehensive profits, and basis changed. For example, the export profit on December 4 was 179, and on December 10, the basis was - 20 [3]. - Market Situation: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold goods at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal overhauls. Near - term export orders have declined slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. Calcium carbide profits are under pressure due to PVC overhauls [3].
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20251211
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-12-11 02:11