永安期货有色早报-20251211

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Copper: The LME cash - 3m spread rose significantly this week due to a large increase in cancelled warrants in Asia. Copper prices broke through $11,000 again. There is a structural supply - demand gap and uneven global inventory distribution. In China, there is expected to be a slight inventory build - up until the Spring Festival. The overall strategy is to buy on dips, with a price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December [1]. - Aluminum: Overseas interest rate cut expectations are positive for the overall trend. The aluminum ingot inventory is flat, and the aluminum product inventory is decreasing. The end - of - year demand is good. The supply is expected to be loose in early 2026 and then tighten [2]. - Zinc: Zinc prices rose this week. The supply of domestic zinc ore is expected to tighten from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. There are smelting overhauls in December, and the demand is seasonally weak. The price may not fall deeply, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities, and consider positive arbitrage opportunities for the 01 - 03 spread [7]. - Nickel: The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly, the demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing. With continuous disturbances in the Indonesian ore market, it is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities [8][9]. - Stainless Steel: The steel mill production is high, the demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory is high. Considering the Indonesian policy, it is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities [12]. - Lead: Lead prices rebounded this week. The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 17,100 - 17,600 yuan/ton next week. Attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [14]. - Tin: Tin prices rose this week. The short - term fundamentals are okay, with a high probability of high - level fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, it can be a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals in the first half of 2026 [17]. - Industrial Silicon: The short - term supply and demand are balanced, and the price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle [19]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price dropped this week. The short - term supply and demand are strong. The opening of upward elasticity in the future depends on inventory reduction, speculative demand, and stronger holding willingness [21]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Spread: The LME cash - 3m spread increased, and copper prices broke through $11,000 [1]. - Supply and Demand: There is a structural supply - demand gap, and the global inventory is unevenly distributed. In China, the actual consumption has slowed down due to high prices [1]. - Outlook: Consider buying on dips, with a price range of $10,800 - $12,000 in December [1]. Aluminum - Price and Inventory: The price decreased slightly, and the inventory remained unchanged [1]. - Supply and Demand: The end - of - year demand is good. The supply is expected to be loose in early 2026 and then tighten [2]. Zinc - Price and Spread: Zinc prices rose, and the LME 0 - 3M spread decreased [7]. - Supply: The supply of domestic zinc ore is expected to tighten, and there are smelting overhauls in December [7]. - Demand: The domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the overseas demand varies [7]. - Strategy: Wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities, and consider positive arbitrage opportunities for the 01 - 03 spread [7]. Nickel - Price and Inventory: The price decreased, and the inventory increased [8]. - Supply and Demand: The supply of pure nickel decreased slightly, and the demand is weak [8]. - Strategy: Consider short - selling opportunities [9]. Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory: Some prices increased slightly, and the inventory remained high [12]. - Supply and Demand: The production is high, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [12]. - Strategy: Consider short - selling opportunities [12]. Lead - Price and Inventory: Lead prices rebounded, and the inventory decreased [14]. - Supply and Demand: The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, and the demand is expected to weaken [14]. - Outlook: The price is expected to fluctuate between 17,100 - 17,600 yuan/ton next week [14]. Tin - Price and Inventory: Tin prices rose, and the LME inventory increased [17]. - Supply and Demand: The short - term fundamentals are okay, and the long - term supply is expected to increase [17]. - Strategy: Short - term high - level fluctuations, medium - to - long - term long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [17]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory: The price fluctuated weakly, and the inventory increased [19]. - Supply and Demand: The short - term supply and demand are balanced, and the long - term supply is excessive [19]. - Outlook: Short - term price fluctuations, long - term bottom - cycle fluctuations [19]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory: The price dropped, and the inventory increased [21]. - Supply and Demand: The short - term supply and demand are strong, and the future upward elasticity depends on inventory reduction [21].