白糖日报-20251211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The New York raw sugar futures fluctuated downward on Friday, with the main March contract closing down 1.08% to 14.66 cents per pound. The main March contract of London ICE white sugar futures closed down 0.9% to $418.80 per ton. The market is stimulated by the decline in Brazil's sugar - making ratio and early harvest, and the dry weather in central - southern Brazil supports the sugar price, while the increasing supply in the Northern Hemisphere suppresses it [7]. - The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar weakened yesterday. The 05 contract closed at 5,225 yuan per ton, down 21 yuan or 0.4%, with an increase of 24,848 positions. The domestic new sugar price remained stable. Fundamentally, the number of sugar mills in the south starting production is increasing, the market lacks confidence, and downstream purchasing willingness is low. The 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar is stable due to the scarcity of warehouse receipts, and short - selling funds continue to suppress the 05 contract [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market Quotes: SR601 closed at 5,328 yuan per ton, down 0.22%, with a position of 241,501 lots; SR605 closed at 5,225 yuan per ton, down 0.40%, with a position of 349,420 lots; US sugar 03 closed at 14.66 cents per pound, down 1.08%, with a position of 454,182 lots; US sugar 05 closed at 14.30 cents per pound, down 0.97%, with a position of 196,694 lots [7]. - Analysis of Market Conditions: The New York raw sugar futures and London ICE white sugar futures both declined. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar main contract also weakened. The domestic new sugar price remained stable, and the supply in the south increased while the downstream demand was weak [7][8]. 3.2 Industry News - Thailand: Due to the sharp drop in sugar prices and the disease in some sugarcane fields, Thai sugarcane farmers are turning to cassava. The 2025/26 sugar production is expected to increase by 6% year - on - year to 10.7 million tons, but may decline by 7.5% to 9.9 million tons in 2026/27. The 2025/26 sugarcane purchase price is expected to drop by 22% year - on - year to 900 Thai baht per ton (about $28.29) [9]. - Yunnan, China: From December 8 - 10, 10 new sugar mills started production in Yunnan, and 2 more are expected to start this week. As of now, 26 sugar mills have started production in the 2025/26 season, 9 more than the same period last year, with an expected daily sugarcane crushing capacity of 99,600 tons, an increase of 43,100 tons compared to the same period last year [9]. - Brazil: Brazil exported about 3.3023 million tons of sugar in November, a year - on - year decrease of 2.48%. From April to November in the 2025/26 season, Brazil cumulatively exported 25.2591 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 4.91% [9]. - India: The average production cost of sugar in India has risen to 41.72 rupees per kilogram. The industry calls for an increase in the minimum selling price of sugar, which has not changed for more than six years. From the start of the 2025 - 26 season to November 30, 2025, sugar production reached 4.108 million tons, compared with 2.876 million tons in the same period last year, and the number of sugar mills in operation increased to 428 from 376 last year [8][9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides data on spot trends, 2601 contract basis, SR1 - 5 spread, Brazil raw sugar import profit, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, Brazilian real exchange rate, and the trading and position data of the top 20 seats of the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar, with data sources mainly from Wind, Pan - Sugar Technology, and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [12][14][21]