建信期货生猪日报-20251211

Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: December 11, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. Core Viewpoint - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase slightly, and there is still demand elasticity before the Spring Festival. However, the concentrated pressure on the栏舍 in October and the continuous release of production capacity have created double supply pressure, continuing to put pressure on the 01 and 03 contracts. But the price decline compared with the same period last year is already large, and the recent increase in the epidemic in the north has stimulated the sentiment of a low - level rebound, increasing the frequency of bottom oscillations. The spot market is mainly in a state of shock due to the weak enthusiasm of secondary fattening [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 10th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher and then oscillated downward, closing in the negative. The highest was 11,480 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,305 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.01% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 5,022 lots to 356,347 lots [7]. - Spot Market: On the 10th, the average price of ternary pigs in the country was 11.39 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous day [7]. - Supply - side: In the long - term, the slaughter of live pigs may basically maintain a slight growth trend until the first half of next year. The secondary fattening and pressure on栏舍 were concentrated in October, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening栏舍 is currently high, reaching the level of the same period last year, increasing the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. In December, the planned slaughter of sample breeding enterprises is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64%. Currently, most breeding farms are slaughtering at a normal pace [8]. - Demand - side: The utilization rate of栏舍 is at a high level, and secondary fattening is mainly waiting and watching. There may still be a small amount of rolling replenishment demand in December. With the continuous cooling of the weather, the demand for curing and sausage - making has gradually increased, the terminal consumer demand has continued to rise, and the increase in orders from slaughtering enterprises has significantly supported the slaughter volume. The slaughter volume and operating rate of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly. On December 10th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 183,600 heads, a decrease of 1,300 heads from the previous day, an increase of 7,000 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 19,000 heads month - on - month [8]. 2. Industry News - No specific industry news content provided. 3. Data Overview - Slaughter Volume: The actual slaughter volume of Yongyi sample enterprises in November was 26.49 million heads, with a completion rate of 99.36%. The planned slaughter volume in December is 27.72 million heads, a monthly increase of 4.64% and a daily average increase of 1.27% [13]. - Breeding Profit: As of the week ending December 4th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 135.01 yuan/head, a decrease of 23.88 yuan/head from the previous week; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 273 yuan/head, an increase of 2 yuan/head week - on - week [13]. - Fattening Cost: As of the week ending December 4th, the cost of purchasing 110kg pigs and fattening them to 140kg was 11.00 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of purchasing 125kg pigs and fattening them to 150kg was 11.39 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.12 yuan/kg from the previous week [13]. - Average Slaughter Weight: As of the week ending December 4th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 129.82kg, an increase of 0.60kg from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.46%. Among them, the average slaughter weight of group farms was 124.71kg, an increase of 0.16kg from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%, and the average slaughter weight of散户 was 146.08kg, an increase of 0.91kg from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.63% [13].