大越期货菜粕早报-20251211

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2605 will fluctuate in the range of 2300 to 2360. The market has returned to a volatile state waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but the low inventory supports the price. The short - term price is affected by soybean meal and will maintain a range - bound pattern [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided 2. Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the off - season after the long holiday, the short - term supply in the spot market is expected to be tight, and the decreasing demand suppresses the price. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest stage, but the Sino - Canadian trade issue has reduced the short - term export and domestic supply [11]. - The preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports by China has been established, with a 75.8% import deposit imposed. The final result is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise in the future, supporting commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: The preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports by China and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping case on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. - The current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From December 2nd to 10th, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3074 - 3095, and the trading volume varied from 8.55 - 27.85 tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2460 - 2520, and the trading volume was mostly 0, except for 0.6 tons on December 10th [13]. - The rapeseed meal futures price and spot price fluctuated. The spot price was at a premium, with a slight fluctuation. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the spot market fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2605 contract expanded slightly [18][20]. - The price of aquatic fish decreased slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish remained stable [35]. 5. Position Data - Not provided 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Fundamental analysis: The rapeseed meal market is affected by soybean meal and technical adjustments. The spot demand peak is over, but the low inventory supports the price. The short - term price is affected by soybean meal and the Sino - Canadian trade situation, remaining range - bound [9]. - Basis: The spot price is 2490, with a basis of 161, indicating a premium over the futures, which is a bullish factor [9]. - Inventory: The rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, a 2.78% week - on - week decrease from last week's 1.8 tons and a 20.45% year - on - year decrease from last year's 2.2 tons, which is bullish [9]. - Market trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish [9]. - Main position: The main long positions have decreased, but the capital has flowed in, which is bullish [9]. - Expectation: Affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the rumor of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations, the rapeseed meal will maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [9].