大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are in a tight balance, and the market is subject to emotional fluctuations triggered by news. The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 92,240 - 95,920 [8][9][13]. - On the supply side, last week's lithium carbonate production was 21,939 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.33%, and it is predicted that the production in December 2025 will be 98,210 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.00%. The import volume in November 2025 was 25,500 tons, and it is predicted that the import volume in December will be 27,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.88%. [8][9] - On the demand side, last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.63% month - on - month, and that of ternary materials decreased by 2.68% month - on - month. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month and the inventory will be reduced [8][9]. - In terms of cost, the daily CIF price of 6% concentrate increased month - on - month, but was lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica remained unchanged day - on - day, and production was at a loss. The cost of the salt lake end was low, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply and Demand: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,939 tons, up 0.33% month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate and ternary material sample enterprises decreased. In November 2025, lithium carbonate production was 95,350 tons, and it is predicted to be 98,210 tons in December, up 3.00% month - on - month. The import volume was 25,500 tons, and it is expected to be 27,000 tons in December, up 5.88% month - on - month. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - Cost and Profit: The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate was 94,487 yuan/ton, and the production profit was - 3,883 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica was 93,100 yuan/ton, and the production profit was - 4,675 yuan/ton. The cost of the salt lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins [10]. - Market Indicators: The fundamental situation is neutral; on December 10, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 3,280 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The overall inventory decreased by 2.04% month - on - month, higher than the historical average, and the situation is neutral. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish. The net position of the main force is short, and the short position increased, which is bearish [10]. - Positive and Negative Factors: Positive factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end, with a limited decline range. The main logic is the emotional fluctuations caused by news under the tight balance of supply and demand [11][12][13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - Price Data: The prices of lithium - related products such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium salts generally increased, while the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased slightly by 0.05% [16]. - Supply - Side Data: The weekly and monthly production and import volume of lithium carbonate and other products showed different degrees of growth. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in November 2025 was 95,350 tons, a 3.35% increase from the previous month [20]. - Demand - Side Data: The monthly production and export volume of lithium iron phosphate increased, and the monthly production of ternary materials also increased. The monthly power battery loading volume increased, and the sales volume and export volume of new energy vehicles also increased [20]. - Inventory Data: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2.04% month - on - month, with the smelter inventory decreasing by 14.62% and the downstream inventory increasing by 4.08%. The inventory of ternary materials decreased by 2.68% [10][20].