大越期货生猪期货早报-20251211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase as China enters the off - season of supply and demand after the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, and the recent increase in swine fever has led to a short - term increase in slaughter, suppressing pig prices. The demand side shows that the overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened after the long holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption, but the demand for cured meat gradually supports the price bottom. The market may see an increase in both supply and demand this week, with pig prices expected to decline in the short - term and maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium - term. The report has a neutral view on the overall situation. The expected trading range for the LH2603 contract of live pigs is around 11100 - 11500 [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic live pig consumption market is affected by the arrival of the off - season, swine fever has spread, pig slaughter has increased, and the spot price is weak in the short - term and maintains a range - bound pattern in the medium - term [10]. - After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, pork demand has weakened in the short - term. Affected by the increase in supply, the live pig spot price is oscillating weakly. The continued decline space may be limited, and it may show a bottom - fishing and rebound trend [10]. - The loss of domestic live pig breeding profits has recently expanded, short - term profits have deteriorated, and the enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs has weakened in the short - term. The reduction in both supply and demand supports the short - term expected price of live pig futures and spot [10]. - The live pig spot price is oscillating downward, and the futures are weak in the short - term and may maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium - term as a whole. Further observation of the growth of supply and demand is needed in the future [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish Factors - The domestic live pig supply enters the off - season after the long holiday [11]. - The continued decline space of the domestic live pig spot price may be limited [11]. Bearish Factors - The domestic macro - environment is expected to improve due to the initial Sino - US trade agreement [11]. - The domestic live pig inventory has increased year - on - year [11]. Main Logic - The market focuses on the pig slaughter situation and fresh meat demand [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - As of September 30, the live pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. As of the end of September, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.66% [8]. - The annual live pig consumption volume has increased month - on - month, indicating a rebound in pork consumption preference due to price advantages [60]. 3.5 Position Data - The net position of the main force is short, and the short position is decreasing [8]. 3.6 Other Data Presented - Price Data: The report provides data on live pig futures prices (near - month 2601 and main 2603 contracts), live pig futures warehouse receipts, and ex - factory prices of ternary live pigs in different regions from December 3 to December 10 [12]. - Graphical Data: The report includes multiple graphs showing the trends of live pig futures basis and spreads, prices of different specifications of live pigs, various supply - side indicators (such as binary sow prices, piglet indicators, inventory, import, cost, profit, etc.), slaughter - end prices and profits, demand - side consumption trends, pig - grain ratio, and the situation of pig purchase and release reserves from 2019 to 2024 [13][15][21][48][58][61][65][67][69].