工业硅期货早报-20251211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Industrial Silicon - The fundamentals are bearish, with supply remaining high despite a reduction in production scheduling, and demand recovery at a low level. The cost support has increased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,150 - 8,350 for the 2605 contract [6]. - Bullish factors include rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production. Bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply but weak demand in the downstream polysilicon market. The main logic lies in capacity clearance, cost support, and demand growth [14][15]. Polysilicon - The fundamentals are bearish. Supply production scheduling is expected to decrease in the short term and recover in the medium term. The overall demand shows a continuous decline as wafer production, cell production, and component production all continue to decrease. The cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 55,035 - 56,795 for the 2605 contract [10][11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 88,000 tons, a 3.29% decrease from the previous week. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 72,000 tons, a 12.19% decrease from the previous week, with demand remaining low. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 was 2,874 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season. - Basis: On December 10th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 945 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 558,000 tons, a 1.45% increase from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory was 182,500 tons, a 1.61% increase; the main port inventory was 131,000 tons, a 1.55% increase [6]. - Market trend: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20. The main position is net short, and short positions increased [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 25,800 tons, a 7.50% increase from the previous week. The production scheduling for December is predicted to be 113,500 tons, a 0.95% decrease from the previous month [10]. - Demand: Last week, the wafer production was 11.95GW, a 0.58% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 213,000 tons, a 9.23% increase. Currently, wafer production is in a loss state. The production scheduling for December is 45.7GW, a 15.94% decrease from the previous month. In November, the cell production was 55.61GW, a 6.17% decrease from the previous month. Last week, the inventory of cell external sales factories was 9.07GW, a 4.72% decrease. Currently, cell production is in a loss state. The production scheduling for December is 48.72GW, a 12.38% decrease. In November, the component production was 46.9GW, a 2.49% decrease from the previous month. The expected component production for December is 39.99GW, a 14.73% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease, and the European monthly inventory is 33.1GW, a 6.49% decrease. Currently, component production is in a profit state [11]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,700 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,300 yuan/ton [11]. - Basis: On December 10th, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 2,300 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price [12]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 291,000 tons, a 3.55% increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [12]. - Market trend: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20. The main position is net short, and short positions increased [12]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures closing prices: All contracts showed a decline compared to the previous day, with the decline rate ranging from 1.08% to 2.08%. - Basis: Most contracts showed an increase compared to the previous day, with the increase rate ranging from 10.47% to 109.67%. - Other indicators: The registered warehouse receipt number was 7,780, a 3.35% increase from the previous day. The weekly DMC production was 49,200 tons, with no change from the previous day. The daily capacity utilization rate was 74.84%, with no change. The daily DMC price was 13,600 yuan/ton, with no change [18]. Polysilicon - Futures closing prices: Some contracts showed an increase, and some showed a decrease compared to the previous day, with the change rate ranging from - 0.71% to 0.55%. - Basis: The change in the basis of each contract was different, with the change rate ranging from - 10.00% to 9.21%. - Other indicators: The daily prices of various types of polysilicon remained unchanged. The weekly total inventory was 291,000 tons, a 3.56% increase from the previous week [20]. 3.3 Price and Inventory Trends - Industrial Silicon: The report presents the price - basis and delivery product price difference trends of industrial silicon from 2019 - 2025, as well as the inventory trends of industrial silicon in delivery warehouses and ports, SMM sample enterprises, and the number of registered warehouse receipts from 2018 - 2025 [23][29]. - Polysilicon: It shows the price trends of the polysilicon market from 2025, including the main contract price, basis, and inventory trends [26]. 3.4 Production and Cost Trends Industrial Silicon - Production: The report shows the weekly production trends of SMM sample enterprises, monthly production trends by specification from 2023 - 2025, and the production capacity utilization rate trends of different regions [33]. - Cost: It presents the cost - profit trends of sample regions (Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang) from 2022 - 2025 [40]. Polysilicon - The report shows the cost trends of the polysilicon industry from 2023 - 2025, including the price trends of different types of polysilicon, inventory, monthly production, monthly demand, and monthly capacity utilization rate [68]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Industrial Silicon - Weekly supply - demand balance: It shows the weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon from 2024 - 2025, including production, import, export, consumption, and balance. - Monthly supply - demand balance: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon from October 2024 - October 2025, including production, import, export, actual consumption, and balance [42][45]. Polysilicon - Monthly supply - demand balance: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance of polysilicon from October 2024 - October 2025, including supply, import, export, consumption, and balance [71]. 3.6 Downstream Market Trends Organic Silicon - DMC price and production: It shows the DMC daily capacity utilization rate, profit - cost trends, weekly production trends, and price trends from 2019 - 2025. - Downstream product prices: It shows the price trends of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 from 2022 - 2025. - Import - export and inventory: It shows the monthly import - export volume and inventory trends of DMC from 2019 - 2025 [48][50][54]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and supply: It shows the waste aluminum recycling volume, social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, import - export situation of unwrought aluminum alloy, SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price, and import ADC12 cost - profit trends from 2019 - 2025. - Inventory and production: It shows the monthly production trends of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, weekly production start rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and social inventory trends of aluminum alloy ingots from 2019 - 2025. - Demand: It shows the monthly production and sales volume trends of automobiles and the export trends of aluminum alloy wheels from 2018 - 2025 [58][61][63]. Polysilicon Downstream - Wafer: It shows the price, weekly production, weekly inventory, monthly demand, and net export trends of wafers from 2021 - 2025. - Cell: It shows the price, production scheduling and actual production, weekly inventory, production start rate, and export trends of cells from 2022 - 2025. - Photovoltaic component: It shows the price, domestic and European inventory, monthly production, and export trends of photovoltaic components from 2021 - 2025. - Photovoltaic accessories: It shows the price trends of photovoltaic coatings, import - export trends of photovoltaic films and glass, monthly production trends of photovoltaic glass, and import - export trends of welding strips from 2021 - 2025. - Component cost - profit: It shows the cost - profit trends of 210mm double - sided double - glass components, including silicon material cost, silicon wafer cost - profit, cell cost - profit, and component cost - profit from 2024 - 2025. - Photovoltaic grid - connected power generation: It shows the trends of the national new power generation installed capacity, power generation composition and total amount, photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, and solar power generation from 2019 - 2025 [74][77][80].