2025年12月美联储议息会议点评：利率下行，风险上行

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations[1] - It is anticipated that the Fed will further reduce the policy rate by a total of 50-75 basis points in 2026, aiming for a neutral level around 3%[1][6] Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.4%, indicating a cooling labor market[2] - The PCE price index increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, while the core PCE also rose by 0.2% month-on-month, remaining at 2.8% year-on-year[2] Tariff Impact - Research from the San Francisco Fed suggests that tariff increases may not raise inflation as traditionally expected, but could instead suppress demand and lower inflation[3][5] - Historical data indicates that tariff shocks lead to increased uncertainty, reduced consumer spending, and delayed business investment, resulting in negative demand shocks[3][5] Consumer Behavior - Consumer confidence is declining, particularly among middle and low-income groups, which is affecting retail pricing power[6] - The stock market, driven by AI-related companies, is supporting spending among wealthier consumers, but this does not reflect the financial situation of the majority[6]