沪锌产业日报-20251211

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - situation shows that the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but three voting members opposed. It still expects one more rate cut next year and will buy $40 billion in short - term bonds. The impact of tariffs is expected to gradually subside next year. Fundamentally, zinc ore imports have declined due to the worsening internal - external price ratio and increased losses in importing zinc concentrates. Domestic refineries' raw material winter reserves have started, with a preference for domestic zinc concentrates. Refinery profits have shrunk, and production is expected to drop significantly. Overseas supply remains tight, and China is expected to turn into a net exporter, easing domestic supply pressure. On the demand side, the downstream market is entering the off - season, with the real estate sector being a drag, while the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are weakening, and there are some bright spots in the automotive sector. The zinc price has corrected recently, the trading atmosphere has improved, the domestic inventory has decreased significantly, and the LME zinc inventory has rebounded. Technically, the price has corrected with shrinking volume and reduced positions, and the bullish sentiment has declined. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will undergo high - level adjustments, and attention should be paid to the battle at the 23,000 yuan/ton mark [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,995 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the 01 - 02 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 5 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quote is 3,075 dollars/ton, down 14 dollars. The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 200,606 lots, down 2,682 lots. The net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 10,858 lots, down 1,296 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged. The SHFE inventory is 91,916 tons, down 4,000 tons, and the LME inventory is 59,800 tons, up 1,650 tons [2] Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 23,110 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 23,060 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is 115 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan. The LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread is 158.52 dollars/ton, down 4.47 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 19,710 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan, and the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 21,000 tons, up 6,800 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, up 17,700 tons. The global zinc mine production by ILZSG is 1.0976 million tons, up 21,400 tons. The domestic refined zinc production is 625,000 tons, down 26,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons, down 164,500 tons [2] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons, down 3,840.75 tons, and the refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons, up 6,040.84 tons. The social zinc inventory is 132,500 tons, down 1,400 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, up 10,000 tons, and the sales volume is 2.28 million tons, down 90,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 490.6139 million square meters, up 36.6239 million square meters, and the monthly housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, up 37.3212 million square meters. The monthly automobile production is 3.279 million vehicles, up 52,000 vehicles, and the monthly air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, down 3.8908 million units [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 12.87%, down 1.38 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 12.93%, down 1.32 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.61%, down 0.21 percentage points, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.85%, down 0.08 percentage points [2] Industry News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but three voting members opposed. It still expects one more rate cut next year and will buy $40 billion in short - term bonds. China's CPI in November increased by 0.7% year - on - year, the highest since March 2024, and the year - on - year decline in PPI slightly widened. Hassett said that Trump will make a final decision on the Fed chairman candidate in the next 1 - 2 weeks [2]