瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20251211

Report Information - Report Title: Methanol Industry Daily Report 2025-12-11 [2] - Analyst: Lin Jingyi [3] - Analyst Qualification: Futures Practitioner Qualification No. F03139610, Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate No. Z0021558 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term total inventory of domestic methanol producers may accumulate due to factors such as the decline in MTO industry operation, abundant supply in the main production areas, and some large methanol plants increasing production. The port inventory has decreased significantly, and future attention should be paid to the unloading of foreign vessels. The demand side shows a downward trend in industry operation, and the MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2000 - 2100 in the short term [3] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2074 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 21 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 46 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 30 yuan/ton. - The position of the main contract is 550,185 hands, a decrease of 91,950 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 160,992 hands. - The number of warehouse receipts is 8,723, an increase of 1 [3] 2. Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2070 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1975 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 17 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton. - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 242 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 317 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 253 euros/ton, a decrease of 4 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 75 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 4.63 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.05 US dollars [3] 4. Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 83.06 tons, a decrease of 10.82 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 40.38 tons, a decrease of 0.68 tons. - The import profit of methanol is 2.42 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 161.26 tons, an increase of 18.57 tons. - The inventory of inland enterprises is 352,800 tons, a decrease of 8,700 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 89.09%, unchanged [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 42.91%, a decrease of 0.07%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 7.88%, unchanged. - The operating rate of acetic acid is 69.62%, a decrease of 3.44%; the operating rate of MTBE is 69.97%, unchanged. - The operating rate of olefins is 90.82%, an increase of 0.89%; the on - disk profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton [3] 6. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 20.3%, an increase of 0.41%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 18.55%, an increase of 0.05%. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 17.94%, a decrease of 0.57%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 17.94%, a decrease of 0.57% [3] 7. Industry News - As of December 10, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 35.28 tons, a decrease of 0.87 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 20.75 tons, a decrease of 3.22 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 13.45%. - As of December 10, the total inventory of China's methanol ports was 123.44 tons, a decrease of 11.5 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China decreased by 10.82 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 0.68 tons. - As of December 11, the production loss of domestic methanol due to maintenance and production reduction was less than the output increase from the recovery of production capacity, and the overall output increased [3] 8. Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory and port inventory data from Longzhong on Wednesday [3]