LPG早报-20251212
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-12-12 01:21

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic LPG market shows a situation where the internal valuation is relatively high. Although the domestic chemical industry has poor profits, the operating rate remains strong, and there is an expectation of a slight increase in civil demand, providing short - term support. Attention should be paid to winter weather and oil price conditions [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Data and Information Daily Changes - On Thursday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4415 (-9), in Shandong was 4400 (+30), and in South China was 4420 (-20). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4570 (+0). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of 292 (+164), the 01 - 02 month spread was 68 (-9), and the 03 - 04 month spread was - 237 (-31). As of 21:00, FEI was 527 (-4) and CP was 521 (-3) dollars per ton [1] Weekly Views - The futures market was volatile, with a basis of 143 (+232), the 01 - 02 month spread of 79 (+3), and the 03 - 04 month spread of - 211 (-19). The number of warehouse receipts was 4611 lots (-200). Civil LPG prices rose, and the cheapest delivery product was civil LPG in East China at 4411 (+88). The foreign market FEI declined, while CP and MB increased, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. The internal and external markets weakened, with PG - CP dropping to 100 (-21) and PG - FEI dropping to 79 (-7). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. The arrival premium for propane in East China was 97 (-2), and the FOB premiums for propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States were 30 (+18.75), 25 (-13), and 43 dollars (+4) respectively. Freight rates declined. The spot profit of PDH weakened, and the futures profit decreased; the alkylation unit improved; the MTBE profit fluctuated. Port inventories decreased (-7%) due to a significant drop in arrivals (-18%) and a slight increase in demand; refinery inventories increased slightly (+0.86%). The PDH operating rate was 70.22% (+0.4pct), the alkylation operating rate was 37.93% (+1pct), and the MTBE operating rate was 71.58% (+0) [1]