广发早知道：汇总版-20251212

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Report's Core View The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, commodities, and agricultural products. It assesses the supply - demand relationship, market sentiment, and price trends of each product, and provides corresponding investment strategies based on the analysis [2][3][4]. Summary by Directory Daily Highlights - Tin: Fed's balance - sheet expansion boosts market risk appetite, and supply - side tightness leads to a strong - biased shock in tin prices. It's recommended to hold long positions and buy on dips [2]. - PVC: The contradiction of oversupply remains unimproved, and the futures prices are expected to continue to decline at the bottom [3]. - Coking Coal: Spot prices of coal and coke continue to fall, and the futures prices are expected to be weakly fluctuating. It's recommended to hold a short - biased view and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [4]. - Oils and Fats: Palm oil may face downward pressure, and its support level is around 8000 yuan. Soybean oil follows the rise of rapeseed oil, and the basis of the May contract is supported [5]. Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: After the interest - rate cut, the A - share market showed a trend of rising and then falling. It's recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and consider a bull - spread strategy on dips [6][7][8]. - Treasury Bond Futures: After the Central Economic Work Conference, the expectation of loose monetary policy has increased. It's recommended to go long on T and TL contracts on dips and pay attention to the positive - arbitrage opportunity of the 2603 contract [9][10][11]. Precious Metals - Precious Metals: The risk of a downturn in the US labor market increases the expectation of Fed's easing, leading to a sharp rise in precious metals. Gold is recommended to be bought on dips, silver to be cautious about chasing highs, and platinum to maintain a low - buying strategy [12][13][14]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Container Shipping Index (European Line): The EC main contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [16]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Fed's interest - rate cut and balance - sheet expansion support copper prices. It's recommended to hold long positions in the long term and pay attention to the support level of 90000 - 91000 yuan [17][20][21]. - Alumina: The market is pessimistic, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom. It's recommended to buy on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options [21][22][23]. - Aluminum: Supported by strong macro - expectations and supply risks, the price is expected to be strong in the short term. It's recommended to buy on dips [23][25][26]. - Aluminum Alloy: The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly at a high level. It's recommended to consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 [26][27][28]. - Zinc: A weak US dollar, inventory reduction, and TC decline boost zinc prices. It's recommended to hold long positions and a cross - market reverse - arbitrage strategy [28][30][31]. - Tin: Market sentiment and fundamentals are strong, and tin prices are expected to be strong. It's recommended to hold long positions and buy on dips [31][34][35]. - Nickel: After the macro - expectation is settled, the price is under pressure. It's expected to fluctuate in a range. The reference range for the main contract is 116000 - 120000 yuan [35][36][37]. - Stainless Steel: The supply pressure eases slightly, but the demand is weak in the off - season. It's expected to fluctuate and adjust. The reference range for the main contract is 12400 - 12800 yuan [38][39][40]. - Lithium Carbonate: Driven by strong capital sentiment, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. It's recommended to wait and see [41][44]. - Polysilicon: The inventory increases, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It's recommended to wait and see [45][46][47]. - Industrial Silicon: The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It's recommended to close positions [48][49][50]. Ferrous Metals - Steel: Affected by negative feedback, the steel price is weak. It's recommended to consider a short - position strategy on the January contract's iron - ore - to - steel ratio [50][51][52]. - Iron Ore: With the decline of hot - metal production and the increase of port inventory, the price is expected to be weakly fluctuating. It's recommended to go short on the 2605 contract [53][54][55]. - Coking Coal: Spot prices fall, and the futures price is expected to be weakly fluctuating. It's recommended to hold a short - biased view and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [57][58][59]. - Coke: The second price cut in December is expected to be implemented, and the price is expected to be weakly fluctuating. It's recommended to hold a short - biased view and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [60][61]. Agricultural Products - Meal: The US soybeans lack trading highlights. The domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and it's recommended to pay attention to the 1 - 5 positive - arbitrage [62][64][65]. - Pigs: The pickling demand provides support, but the price is affected by the epidemic. It's recommended to pay attention to the epidemic situation [66][67]. - Corn: The increase in supply is limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate. It's recommended to pay attention to the continuity of supply [68][69][70]. - Sugar: The international raw - sugar price is bearish, and the domestic price is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [71]. - Cotton: The US cotton price fluctuates at the bottom, and the domestic price is expected to fluctuate strongly. It's recommended to pay attention to the pressure level around 14000 yuan [73][74]. - Eggs: The egg price is expected to fluctuate weakly, but the decline is limited [75]. - Oils and Fats: Palm oil may face downward pressure, and soybean oil is supported. It's recommended to pay attention to the support level of palm oil at 8000 yuan [76][78]. - Jujubes: The supply pressure exists, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It's recommended to pay attention to the actual sales [79][80]. - Apples: The trading is slow, and the price is expected to be stable [81][82]. Energy and Chemicals - PX: The medium - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and the price is supported at a low level. It's expected to fluctuate in the range of 6600 - 7000 yuan [83][84]. - PTA: The December supply - demand is expected to be tight, but the first - quarter supply - demand is expected to be loose. It's expected to fluctuate in the range of 4500 - 4800 yuan, and a TA5 - 9 low - level positive - arbitrage is recommended [86][87]. - Short - Fiber: The supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to follow the raw materials. It's recommended to do the same as PTA and shrink the processing margin on rallies [88]. - Bottle Chips: The supply - demand is loose in December, and the processing margin is expected to be squeezed. It's recommended to do the same as PTA and shrink the processing margin [89][90]. - Ethylene Glycol: The cost decline drags down the price. It's recommended to wait and see [91][92]. - Pure Benzene: The supply - demand is weak in the short term, and the price is driven by the oil price and styrene. It's recommended to pay attention to domestic device changes [93]. - Styrene: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It's recommended to treat it as a low - level shock [96]. - LLDPE: The supply pressure increases, and it's recommended to wait and see [97]. - PP: The supply - demand increases, and it's recommended to pay attention to the expansion of PDH profit [97][98]. - Methanol: The futures price fluctuates narrowly, and it's recommended to pay attention to the shrinkage of MTO05 [98][99]. - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand has pressure, and the price is expected to be weak. It's recommended to hold short positions [100][101]. - PVC: The oversupply contradiction remains, and the price is expected to decline at the bottom [102]. - Soda Ash: The production is high, and the demand contracts. It's recommended to hold short positions [104]. - Glass: The price is expected to be bearish [105]. - Natural Rubber: It's recommended to pay attention to the geopolitical conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15000 - 15500 yuan [105][107]. - Synthetic Rubber: The BR price is expected to be under pressure. It's recommended to go short on rallies and pay attention to the pressure around 10800 yuan [109][110].