大越期货尿素早报-20251212

Report Information - Report Name: Urea Morning Report [2] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have slightly declined due to the shutdown of some western plants, and the comprehensive inventory has decreased with an obvious de - stocking pattern. The agricultural and industrial demands are mainly on - demand. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has significantly increased year - on - year, and the winter storage demand is strong, boosting the market sentiment. However, the domestic urea market is still in oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1690 (unchanged). The overall fundamentals are neutral. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate weakly today [5]. Summary by Section Urea Fundamentals - Supply and Demand: Current daily production and operating rate have a slight decline. The comprehensive inventory has decreased, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. Agricultural and industrial demands are on - demand, the compound fertilizer operating rate has increased year - on - year, and winter storage demand is strong. The domestic market is still oversupplied [5]. - Base Spread: The base spread of the UR2601 contract is 52, and the premium/discount ratio is 3.1%, showing a bullish signal [5]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.396 million tons (- 68,000 tons), indicating a bearish signal [5]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [5]. - Main Position: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish signal [5]. - Expectation: The main contract of urea is weakly declining. Industrial demand is on - demand, inventory is being de - stocked, and the domestic oversupply is still obvious. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate weakly today [5]. Urea Overview - Positive Factors: Inventory de - stocking [6]. - Negative Factors: Domestic oversupply and continuous new high in daily production [6]. - Main Logic: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [6]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Market | The spot price of the delivery product is 1690 (unchanged), the Shandong spot price is 1710 (+ 10), the Henan spot price is 1690 (unchanged), and the FOB China price is 2763 [7]. | | Futures Market | The price of the 01 contract is 1638 (- 7), the base spread is 52 (+ 7), the price of the UR05 contract is 1703 (- 10), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1716 (- 5) [7]. | | Inventory | The warehouse receipt is 11,652 (+ 424), the UR comprehensive inventory is 1.396 million tons, the UR factory inventory is 1.291 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 105,000 tons [7]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10] |