Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the terminal is weakening faster, the inflection point of polyester load may be approaching, TA inventory will gradually accumulate again, but the overall pressure is not large and the valuation is not high. Short - term observation is recommended, and in the long - term, considering the good PX pattern, attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips [2] - For MEG, after the price drops again, coal - based losses intensify, and the supply - side reduction has not reversed the inventory accumulation trend. The short - term valuation is low but the driving force is limited, and the long - term pattern is expected to be weak [7] - For polyester staple fiber, the short - term inventory pressure is limited, but in the far - month, as the downstream enters the off - season and new device production is approaching, the pattern may weaken. Attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [7] - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable and the absolute level is not high, the price of Thai cup rubber is stable, and rainfall affects rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [7] Summary by Product PTA - Price and Spread Changes: From 2025/12/05 to 2025/12/11, crude oil price decreased from $63.8 to $61.3, PTA internal - market spot price changed from 4670 to 4640, and PTA processing difference fluctuated [1][8] - Market Situation: Near - end TA device operation is stable, polyester load increases slightly, inventory remains stable, basis is stable, and spot processing fee improves. PX domestic operation is stable, PXN strengthens, and the benefits of disproportionation and isomerization improve [2] MEG - Price and Profit Changes: From 2025/12/05 to 2025/12/11, MEG external - market price decreased from 445 to 431, and MEG coal - based profit decreased from - 532 to - 660 [7] - Device and Market Situation: There are both overhauls and restarts in the near - end domestic market, the operation rate decreases slightly, some overseas devices reduce load, port inventory accumulates, basis weakens, and coal - based benefits weaken again [7] Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Profit Changes: From 2025/12/05 to 2025/12/11, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber fluctuated, and short - fiber profit increased from 119 to 152 [7] - Market Situation: Near - end device operation is stable, the operation rate is maintained at 97.5%, production and sales are basically stable, and inventory decreases month - on - month. The demand side remains basically the same as before [7] Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - Price Changes: From 2025/12/05 to 2025/12/11, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber fluctuated, and the price of Shanghai full - latex rubber increased [7] - Market Situation: The national explicit inventory is stable, the price of Thai cup rubber is stable, and rainfall affects rubber tapping [7] Styrene - Price and Profit Changes: From 2025/12/05 to 2025/12/11, the price of styrene (CFR China) fluctuated, and styrene domestic profit also fluctuated [7] - Market Situation: The prices of related products such as ethylene and pure benzene also changed to some extent during this period [7]
芳烃橡胶早报-20251212
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-12-12 01:55