农产品早报-20251212

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Agricultural Products Morning Report - Report Date: December 12, 2025 - Report Team: Research Center Agricultural Products Team Group 2: Corn/Starch Price Data | Date | Changchun | Jinzhou | Weifang | Shekou | Basis | Trade Profit | Import Profit/Loss | Heilongjiang | Weifang | Basis | Processing Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/05 | 2120 | 2280 | 2210 | 2470 | -15 | 40 | 275 | 2700 | 2820 | 117 | -107 | | 2025/12/08 | 2170 | 2280 | 2220 | 2460 | 19 | 30 | 272 | 2700 | 2820 | 156 | -104 | | 2025/12/09 | 2170 | 2260 | 2230 | 2450 | 24 | 40 | 262 | 2750 | 2820 | 183 | -55 | | 2025/12/10 | 2170 | 2240 | 2224 | 2440 | -1 | 50 | 252 | 2750 | 2820 | 173 | -33 | | 2025/12/11 | 2160 | 2250 | 2224 | 2430 | 7 | 30 | 244 | 2750 | 2820 | 182 | -23 | | Change | -10 | 10 | 0 | -10 | 8 | -20 | -8 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 10 | [2] Market Analysis - Short - term: Corn prices are expected to remain strong as the downstream is in the seasonal restocking period and the reserve purchase policy has created a tight market. Starch prices are expected to be stable due to seasonal consumption support and raw material supply constraints [3]. - Long - term: Corn prices may weaken if downstream demand falls seasonally and middlemen release their hoarded grain. For starch, the key factor for future pricing is whether the enterprise inventory will continue to decline after the seasonal peak [3]. Group 3: Sugar Price Data | Date | Liuzhou | Nanning | Kunming | Liuzhou Basis | Thailand Import Profit | Brazil Import Profit | Zhengzhou Futures Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/05 | 5505 | 5410 | 5370 | 202 | 258 | 438 | 183 | | 2025/12/08 | 5505 | 5410 | 5345 | 168 | 252 | 432 | 1671 | | 2025/12/09 | 5505 | 5410 | 5345 | 162 | 301 | 481 | 1886 | | 2025/12/10 | 5480 | 5370 | 5340 | 152 | 204 | 384 | 2101 | | 2025/12/11 | 5480 | 5370 | 5340 | 235 | 229 | 408 | 2101 | | Change | 0 | 0 | 0 | 83 | 25 | 24 | 0 | [4] Market Analysis - Short - term: The spot price of sugar is weak, driving the futures price down. The futures price can still refer to the domestic sugar cost and spot price [4]. - Long - term: If the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the futures price may decline to the out - of - quota import cost [4]. Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Price Data | Date | 3128 Cotton | Imported M - grade US Cotton | CotlookA(FE) | Import Profit | Warehouse Receipts + Forecast | Vietnamese Yarn Spot | Vietnamese Yarn Import Profit | 32S Spinning Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/05 | 14580 | 73.5 | 74.2 | 1647 | 5490 | 2.53 | 21020 | 488 | -289 | | 2025/12/08 | 14580 | - | 74.0 | 1688 | 5757 | 2.53 | 21020 | 491 | -289 | | 2025/12/09 | 14570 | - | 73.7 | 1725 | 6070 | 2.53 | 21020 | - | -278 | | 2025/12/10 | 14590 | 73.4 | 74.0 | 1712 | 6285 | 2.53 | 21020 | 508 | -299 | | 2025/12/11 | 14630 | - | - | - | 6552 | 2.53 | 21000 | 491 | -361 | | Change | 40 | - | - | - | 267 | 0 | -20 | -17 | -62 | [5] Market Analysis - New cotton acquisition is basically completed, and the total output is estimated to be lower. The positive result of the China - US meeting in Busan is beneficial to China's textile and clothing exports, making long - term long positions in cotton suitable [5]. Group 5: Eggs Price Data | Date | Hebei | Liaoning | Shandong | Henan | Hubei | Basis | White - feather Broiler | Yellow - feather Broiler | Live Pigs | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/05 | 2.96 | 2.89 | 2.95 | 3.00 | 2.93 | 404 | 3.58 | 3.70 | 17.68 | | 2025/12/08 | 2.96 | 2.89 | 2.95 | 3.00 | 3.02 | 441 | 3.58 | 3.70 | 17.66 | | 2025/12/09 | 2.96 | 2.89 | 2.95 | 3.00 | 3.09 | 461 | 3.58 | 3.70 | 17.57 | | 2025/12/10 | 3.02 | 2.96 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.16 | 416 | 3.62 | 3.70 | 17.88 | | 2025/12/11 | 3.02 | 2.96 | 3.05 | 3.10 | 3.16 | 460 | 3.62 | 3.70 | 17.62 | | Change | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 44.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.26 | [8] Market Analysis - The inflection point of egg inventory has appeared, but the base is still high. The speed of inventory decline depends on the culling rhythm. If farmers cull more hens before the Laba Festival due to low prices, it will be beneficial to egg prices in the second quarter [8]. Group 6: Apples Price Data | Date | Shandong 80 First and Second - grade | Shaanxi 70 Common | National Inventory | Shandong Inventory | Shaanxi Inventory | January Basis | May Basis | October Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/05 | 8900.00 | 4.00 | - | - | - | -655.00 | -739.00 | 366.00 | | 2025/12/08 | 8900.00 | 4.00 | - | - | - | -644.00 | -606.00 | 423.00 | | 2025/12/09 | 8900.00 | 4.00 | - | - | - | -645.00 | -565.00 | 438.00 | | 2025/12/10 | 8900.00 | 4.00 | - | - | - | -718.00 | -610.00 | 420.00 | | 2025/12/11 | 8900.00 | 4.00 | 719.79 | 270.48 | 201.85 | -759.00 | -605.00 | 410.00 | | Change | 0.00 | 0.00 | -41.00 | 5.00 | -10.00 | - | - | - | [13] Market Analysis - The national apple storage is basically completed. The estimated national cold - storage inventory is about 5.5%, 10% less than last year. The market has a shortage of high - quality apples. The futures price is in a high - level shock in the short - term, but the 05 contract is bearish in the medium - term due to many competing products in the consumption market [13]. Group 7: Live Pigs Price Data | Date | Henan Kaifeng | Hubei Xiangyang | Shandong Linyi | Anhui Hefei | Jiangsu Nantong | Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/05 | 11.48 | 11.20 | 11.27 | 11.60 | 11.55 | 95 | | 2025/12/08 | 11.33 | 11.10 | 11.12 | 11.50 | 11.60 | -55 | | 2025/12/09 | 11.23 | 11.15 | 11.17 | 11.50 | 11.65 | -220 | | 2025/12/10 | 11.28 | 11.25 | 11.17 | 11.55 | 11.60 | -30 | | 2025/12/11 | 11.38 | 11.35 | 11.37 | 11.75 | 11.80 | 160 | | Change | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 190.00 | [13] Market Analysis - The live - pig spot price fluctuates on weekends with a supply - demand game. There may be a short - term supply - demand mismatch before the Spring Festival, but the supply pressure is still large. The improvement of the October production data has not fully boosted market sentiment, and factors such as the slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies need to be monitored [13].