大越期货油脂早报-20251212

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall price of oils and fats is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans for export. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View of Different Oils - Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cut. Current export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season [2] - Basis: The spot price is 8408, with a basis of 372, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [2] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory was 1180000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7%, which is bearish [2] - Disk: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main contract have increased, which is bullish [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7800 - 8200 [2] - Palm Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cut. Current export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production - increase season [3] - Basis: The spot price is 8646, with a basis of 4, indicating that the spot price is slightly higher than the futures price, which is neutral [3] - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory was 580000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%, which is bullish [3] - Disk: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main contract have decreased, which is bullish [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8400 - 8800 [3] - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cut. Current export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production - increase season [4] - Basis: The spot price is 9955, with a basis of 649, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [4] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory was 560000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2%, which is bearish [4] - Disk: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the main contract have decreased, which is bearish [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9200 - 9600 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - Lido: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - Bearish: The price of oils and fats is at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]