中央经济工作会议解读：稳地产，去库存，方向大于方式

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [25]. Core Insights - The central economic work conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market, controlling inventory, and optimizing supply, with a focus on city-specific policies. This reflects an urgent need to address the ongoing decline in market volume and prices [5][10]. - The report highlights the need for stronger fiscal and monetary policies to support the real estate sector, especially in light of declining consumer confidence and rising inventory levels [5][12]. - The introduction of reforms to the housing provident fund system is noted as a significant development, aiming to enhance the utilization of funds and improve housing supply [5][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the central economic work conference held on December 10-11, which addressed the need for high-quality urban development and stabilizing the real estate market through targeted measures [5][10]. - It notes that the inventory cycle for new and second-hand homes in 42 cities has reached 28.3 months, indicating significant pressure on the market [5]. Policy Recommendations - The report suggests that future policies may include lowering the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), reducing housing loan rates, and expanding the use of the housing provident fund across regions to stabilize the real estate market [5][12]. - It emphasizes the importance of fiscal policies, such as issuing special bonds and long-term bonds, to address funding needs for real estate policy implementation [5][12]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three main investment themes: 1. Real estate companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, such as Binjiang Group and China Merchants Shekou [5]. 2. Smaller, agile firms that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, like Poly Real Estate Group [5]. 3. Commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios and operational models, such as Joy City and China Resources [5].