大越期货沪铜早报-20251212
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-12-12 02:03

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper has disturbances, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being loosened. The November China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range but showing marginal improvement [2]. - The basis shows that the spot price is 92,795, with a basis of 575, indicating a discount to futures [2]. - On December 11, copper inventory increased by 875 to 165,850 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 9,025 tons from the previous week to 88,905 tons [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving upward [2]. - The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing [2]. - Inventory is rising, geopolitical disturbances remain, and the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia is fermenting. Copper prices have reached a new high and are operating at a high level [2]. - In the near - term, the logic involves global policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3]. - The supply - demand balance in 2024 shows a slight surplus, and it will be in a tight balance in 2025 [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily View - Copper's fundamentals are neutral, with supply - side disturbances, PMI improvement, and scrap copper policy changes [2]. - The basis situation is neutral [2]. - Inventory conditions are neutral [2]. - The disk performance is bullish [2]. - The main position situation is bearish [2]. - The expected copper price trend is to operate at a high level [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic includes global policy easing and trade - war escalation [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance in 2024 shows a slight surplus of 110,000 tons, and it will be in a tight balance in 2025 [19][21]. Other Information - The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. - The processing fee has declined [15].