沪镍、不锈钢早报-20251212

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For Shanghai Nickel (SHFE Nickel): The overall situation is bearish. Although the supply pressure has been alleviated due to some production cuts, the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The inventory is at a high level, and the overall demand for nickel is only slightly boosted by the good production and sales data of new energy vehicles. The SHFE Nickel 2601 is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and it is advisable to sell on rebounds in the medium and long term [2]. - For Stainless Steel: The situation is neutral. The spot price of stainless steel has increased, the cost line is stable, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The Stainless Steel 2602 is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Overview - Nickel: The price of SHFE Nickel主力 decreased by 1220 yuan to 115870 yuan on December 11th compared to the previous day. The price of LME Nickel decreased by 65 dollars to 14610 dollars. The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 300 yuan to 118850 yuan [11]. - Stainless Steel: The price of stainless steel主力 increased by 70 yuan to 12625 yuan on December 11th compared to the previous day. The price of cold - rolled stainless steel in some regions such as Wuxi and Foshan increased slightly [11]. Inventory Situation - Nickel: As of December 5th, the SHFE nickel inventory was 42508 tons, with the futures inventory at 34764 tons, an increase of 1726 tons and 1455 tons respectively. On December 11th, the LME nickel inventory was 252852, a decrease of 240 compared to the previous day. The SHFE nickel (warehouse receipt) was 33939, a decrease of 296 [13][14]. - Stainless Steel: On December 5th, the national stainless steel inventory was 108.03 million tons, a decrease of 0.58 million tons from the previous period. The 300 - series inventory was 66.43 million tons, a decrease of 0.49 million tons. On December 11th, the stainless steel warehouse receipt was 61378, a decrease of 120 compared to the previous day [18][19]. Price of Nickel Ore and Ferronickel - Nickel Ore: The price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) remained at 57 dollars per wet ton, and the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) remained at 29 dollars per wet ton on December 11th compared to the previous day. The freight rates from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged [22]. - Ferronickel: The price of high - nickel ferronickel (8 - 12) increased by 1 yuan to 889 yuan per nickel point, and the price of low - nickel ferronickel (below 2) remained unchanged at 3200 yuan per ton [22]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12546 yuan, the production cost using scrap steel was 12984 yuan, and the production cost using low - nickel and pure nickel was 16186 yuan [24]. Nickel Import Cost The calculated import price of nickel was 116903 yuan per ton [27]. Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates, and some production cuts have reduced the short - term supply pressure [6]. - Negative Factors: The domestic nickel production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there are no new demand growth points, the long - term oversupply pattern remains, the inventory is at a high level, and the ferronickel price is weak [6].