大越期货菜粕早报-20251212

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2300 - 2360. The market has returned to an oscillatory state, awaiting the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term trend is influenced by soybean meal, and the market will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term, with attention on subsequent developments [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - No relevant information provided 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the post - holiday off - season, with short - term supply in the spot market expected to be tight and demand decreasing, suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but due to Sino - Canadian trade issues, short - term exports are reduced, affecting domestic supply expectations. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with a relative offset between Ukraine's rapeseed production decline and Russia's increase. There is a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination and imposition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed; low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season; there is still a small probability of a settlement in the final anti - dumping result of Canadian rapeseed imports. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From December 2nd to 10th, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 3074 to 3095, and the trading volume from 8.55 to 27.85 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2460 to 2520, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with only 0.6 million tons on December 10th. The price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal ranged from 566 to 614 [13]. - From December 3rd to 11th, the price of near - month 2601 rapeseed meal futures ranged from 2355 to 2422, and the price of main 2605 futures from 2317 to 2409. The rapeseed meal spot price (in Fujian) ranged from 2460 to 2520 [15]. - From December 2nd to 11th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remained at 0 [17]. - Rapeseed meal futures have rebounded in an oscillatory manner, with the spot price fluctuating accordingly, and the spot premium fluctuating slightly. The price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal spot prices has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2605 contract has expanded slightly [18][20]. - There were no ship arrival forecasts for imported rapeseed in November, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills remained at a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory was also low. The rapeseed crushing volume in oil mills remained at zero [23][25][27]. - The price of aquatic fish has declined slightly, while the price of shrimps and shellfish has remained stable [35]. 5. Position Data - No relevant information provided 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Fundamental analysis: Rapeseed meal is oscillating narrowly, influenced by soybean meal and technical consolidation. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. Due to uncertainties in Sino - Canadian trade consultations, the short - term trend is influenced by soybean meal and maintains an oscillatory pattern within the range, with a neutral outlook. - Basis: The spot price is 2500, and the basis is 166, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish. - Inventory: The rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% from last week's 1.8 million tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45% compared to 2.2 million tons in the same period last year, which is bullish. - Market trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is bearish. - Main position: The main long positions have decreased, but the capital has flowed in, which is bullish. - Expectation: Rapeseed meal has returned to an oscillatory state due to uncertainties in the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. With recent rumors of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations, it will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term, and subsequent developments should be monitored [9].