大越期货纯碱早报-20251212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak. The production of soda ash plants is at a high level, and the second - phase of Yuangxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year, with abundant overall supply expected. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate with a weak and fluctuating trend [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and inventory at a high level compared to the same period [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures was 1103 yuan/ton, up 0.82% from the previous value. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1100 yuan/ton, with no change. The main basis was - 3 yuan/ton, down 150.00% from the previous value [6]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1100 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [11]. - The profit of heavy soda ash production was at a historical low. The profit of the North China ammonia - soda process was - 118.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process was - 220 yuan/ton [14]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 80.74%. The weekly output was 70.39 tons, including 38.15 tons of heavy soda ash, and the output was at a historical high [17][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there were significant new production capacity plans for soda ash. The new production capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and the planned new production capacity in 2025 was 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons [21]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash was 108.16% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.72 tons, and the operating rate was 74.85% [27]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash was 149.43 tons, a decrease of 2.88% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [34]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E showed fluctuations. In 2024E, the effective production capacity was 3930 tons, the output was 3650 tons, the apparent supply was 3536 tons, the total demand was 3379 tons, and the supply - demand difference was 157 tons [35]. 3.6 Influencing Factors - Positive factors: Equipment problems led to production reduction and maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply was slow [3]. - Negative factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production of the industry is at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4].