大越期货豆粕早报-20251212

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For Bean Meal (M2605): It is expected to oscillate between 2740 and 2800. The market is neutral, with the spot price at 3040 (East China), a basis of 270, and a premium over the futures. The oil - mill bean - meal inventory is 120.32 million tons, up 4.49% week - on - week and 44.18% year - on - year. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and trending down. The main short positions have decreased with capital outflow. In the short term, it is likely to be weakly volatile, affected by factors like China's soybean purchases and South American planting weather [9]. - For Soybeans (A2601): It is predicted to fluctuate between 4100 and 4200. The market is neutral, with a spot price of 4100, a basis of - 48, and a premium over the futures. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 733.96 million tons, up 2.65% week - on - week and 47.57% year - on - year. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and trending down. The main short positions have increased with capital outflow. The domestic soybean price is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in demand but is suppressed by Brazilian soybean production and domestic soybean yield increases [11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's purchases and US soybean weather are uncertain, and the US market is strongly volatile above the thousand - point mark in the short term. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the oil - mill soybean inventory declined from a high in November. With normal US soybean harvesting weather and the preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, bean meal has returned to range - bound trading. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking. The weakening demand for bean meal in November has suppressed price expectations, and the interaction between the influence of US soybeans and the off - season demand has led to a return to the range - bound pattern. - The domestic oil - mill bean - meal inventory remains at a relatively high level. With the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the impact of the Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, bean meal will maintain range - bound trading in the short term, awaiting further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bean Meal - Bullish Factors: The preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, the domestic oil - mill bean - meal inventory has no pressure, and there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish Factors: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China remained relatively high in November, and South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest under normal weather conditions [15]. Soybeans - Bullish Factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [16]. - Bearish Factors: Brazil's soybean harvest is good, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans. The expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season suppresses price expectations [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price and Volume Data: The trading volume and average price of bean meal and rapeseed meal from December 3 to December 11 are presented, along with the price data of soybean futures and spot prices from December 4 to December 11 [17][19]. - Supply and Demand Balance Sheets: The global and domestic soybean supply - and - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are provided, including data on harvested area, beginning inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [33][34]. - Sowing, Growth, and Harvesting Progress: The sowing and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from different years are detailed, including data such as sowing rate, emergence rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, defoliation rate, and harvesting rate [35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45]. - USDA Supply - and - Demand Reports: The USDA's monthly supply - and - demand reports for the past six months are shown, including data on planting area, yield per unit, production, ending inventory, new - bean exports, and crushing volume for the US, as well as soybean production in Brazil and Argentina [46]. - Other Data: The weekly export inspection of US soybeans has increased on a week - on - week basis but decreased on a year - on - year basis. The arrival of imported soybeans decreased from a high in November but increased overall on a year - on - year basis. The oil - mill soybean inventory remains at a high level, and the bean - meal inventory has returned to a high level. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have fallen to a low level, and the stocking demand has decreased. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills has declined from a high level, and the bean - meal production in September increased year - on - year. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has fluctuated with the US soybean price, and the margin on the futures market has fluctuated slightly [47][49][50][52][54][56]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the given content