Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For copper, the LME cash - 3m spread rose significantly due to a large increase in cancelled warrants in Asia, causing short - term market panic. The copper price exceeded $11,000 again, with a structural supply - demand gap and uneven global inventory distribution. In China, consumption slowed due to high prices, and a slight inventory build - up is expected until the Spring Festival. The overall idea is to buy on dips, with the price expected to range from $10,800 to $12,000 in December [1]. - For aluminum, overseas interest - rate cut expectations are beneficial to the overall trend. Aluminum ingot inventory remained flat, while aluminum products continued to reduce inventory. The end - of - year demand was good. Supply and demand are expected to be loose in early 2026 and then gradually tighten [1]. - For zinc, the price rose this week. The supply of domestic zinc ore is expected to tighten from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, and many smelters will undergo maintenance in December. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, while overseas demand in the US has increased. The recommendation is to wait and see for single - sided trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and consider positive arbitrage opportunities for the 01 - 03 spread [4][5][6]. - For nickel, the supply of pure nickel decreased slightly, demand was weak, and both domestic and overseas inventories continued to build up. With ongoing disturbances in the Indonesian nickel mining sector, short - selling opportunities on price rallies are worth attention [7][8]. - For stainless steel, steel mills maintained high production, demand was mainly for essential needs, and inventory remained at a high level. Considering the price - support motivation from Indonesian policies, short - selling opportunities on price rallies are recommended [11]. - For lead, the price stopped falling and rebounded. The supply of primary lead remained high, and the supply of recycled lead increased. Demand is expected to weaken. The price is expected to oscillate between 17,100 and 17,600 yuan next week, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [12][13]. - For tin, the price was lifted by the overall non - ferrous market. The supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the long - term but with limited elasticity. The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and it can be considered as a long - position allocation in the non - ferrous sector in the first half of 2026 [16]. - For industrial silicon, the market oscillated weakly this week. The supply and demand are balanced in December, and the price is expected to oscillate. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle based on the seasonal marginal cost [18]. - For lithium carbonate, the futures price dropped significantly this week. The supply and demand are both strong in the short - term. However, due to high inventory in the intermediate and battery raw material sectors, the upside potential depends on inventory reduction, the emergence of speculative demand, or stronger holding intentions [20]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Spread: The LME cash - 3m spread increased significantly, and the copper price exceeded $11,000 again. The domestic spot premium decreased, and the import profit window was still restricted [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory increased by 875 tons, and cancelled warrants increased by 1,250 tons. In China, the inventory is expected to build up slightly until the Spring Festival [1]. - Outlook: The overall idea is to buy on dips, with the price expected to range from $10,800 to $12,000 in December [1]. Aluminum - Price and Spread: The aluminum price increased slightly, and the spot basis declined. The import profit improved slightly [1]. - Inventory: Aluminum ingot inventory remained flat at 113,335 tons, while LME inventory decreased by 2,050 tons [1]. - Outlook: Overseas interest - rate cut expectations are beneficial. Supply and demand are expected to be loose in early 2026 and then gradually tighten [1]. Zinc - Price and Spread: The zinc price rose, and the LME 0 - 3M premium decreased from $224 to $163 [4][5][6]. - Supply: Domestic and imported TC decreased rapidly. Many smelters will undergo maintenance in December, and the production is expected to decrease by 15,000 - 18,000 tons [6]. - Demand: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, while overseas demand in the US has increased [6]. - Strategy: Wait and see for single - sided trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and consider positive arbitrage opportunities for the 01 - 03 spread [6]. Nickel - Price and Spread: The nickel price decreased slightly, and the import profit improved [7]. - Supply: The production of pure nickel decreased slightly [7]. - Demand: The overall demand was weak, but the Jinchuan premium was strong [7]. - Inventory: Both domestic and overseas inventories continued to build up [7]. - Strategy: With ongoing disturbances in the Indonesian nickel mining sector, short - selling opportunities on price rallies are worth attention [8]. Stainless Steel - Price: The price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained stable, and the price of waste stainless steel increased by 30 yuan [11]. - Supply: Steel mills maintained high production [11]. - Demand: Demand was mainly for essential needs [11]. - Inventory: Inventory remained at a high level [11]. - Strategy: Considering the price - support motivation from Indonesian policies, short - selling opportunities on price rallies are recommended [11]. Lead - Price: The lead price stopped falling and rebounded to around 17,000 yuan [13]. - Supply: The supply of primary lead remained high, and the supply of recycled lead increased by about 4,000 - 5,000 tons this week [13]. - Demand: The battery production rate remained flat, and the demand is expected to weaken [13]. - Inventory: The five - region social inventory decreased to 23,600 tons [13]. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate between 17,100 and 17,600 yuan next week, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [13]. Tin - Price: The tin price was lifted by the overall non - ferrous market [16]. - Supply: The processing fee of tin ore remained low, and the overseas production recovery was slow. However, high prices stimulated inventory exports [16]. - Demand: The demand was mainly supported by rigidity, and the downstream's acceptable price level increased [16]. - Outlook: The short - term fundamentals are acceptable, and it can be considered as a long - position allocation in the non - ferrous sector in the first half of 2026 [16]. Industrial Silicon - Price: The market oscillated weakly, and the actual transaction price of some grades was around 9,400 - 9,500 yuan/ton [18]. - Supply: Southwest producers reduced production to support prices, while northern producers maintained stable production [18]. - Demand: Terminal procurement enthusiasm was average, and transactions were mainly based on low - price point - pricing [18]. - Outlook: The supply and demand are balanced in December, and the price is expected to oscillate. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle based on the seasonal marginal cost [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The futures price dropped significantly, and the spot price increased slightly [20]. - Supply: The upstream inventory continued to decrease, and the delivery to warehouses was slow [20]. - Demand: Downstream material factories were mainly purchasing for essential needs, and the spot - trading activity increased as the price declined [20]. - Outlook: The supply and demand are both strong in the short - term. However, due to high inventory in the intermediate and battery raw material sectors, the upside potential depends on inventory reduction, the emergence of speculative demand, or stronger holding intentions [20].
永安期货有色早报-20251212
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-12-12 02:20