建信期货原油日报-20251212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market remains severely oversupplied, but the IEA slightly raised the 2026 demand forecast, narrowing the oversupply margin [6] - The geopolitical situation has eased, and OPEC+ agreed to suspend production increases in Q1 2026. However, the conflict between the US and Venezuela has escalated, supporting oil prices to some extent [7] - There is still significant inventory accumulation pressure in Q4, and a short - term trading strategy for crude oil is recommended. Traders should consider shorting on rebounds or using reverse spreads [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Quotes: WTI's main contract opened at $58.37, closed at $58.96, with a high of $59.05, a low of $57.66, a daily increase of 1.22%, and a trading volume of 23.13 million lots. Brent's main contract opened at $62.11, closed at $62.52, with a high of $62.73, a low of $61.35, a daily increase of 0.94%, and a trading volume of 29.87 million lots. SC's main contract (yuan/barrel) opened at 444.7, closed at 439.7, with a high of 448.8, a low of 438.2, a daily decrease of 1.04%, and a trading volume of 6.62 million lots [6] - Inventory Data: As of the week ending on the 5th, US crude oil inventories slightly declined, but refined oil inventories increased significantly [6] - Operation Suggestions: Given the large inventory accumulation pressure in Q4, the report suggests a short - term trading strategy for crude oil, such as shorting on rebounds or using reverse spreads [7] 3.2 Industry News - The IEA monthly report indicates that the global oil supply - demand balance continues to show a severe oversupply situation [8] - Ukraine's Security Service reported the first attack on Russian oil extraction facilities in the Caspian Sea [8] - Citi believes that due to the expected market oversupply and persistent geopolitical uncertainties, OPEC+ will likely support oil prices at around $60 from 2026 to 2027, with a baseline assumption of no further production cuts during this period [8] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [13][12][21]