建信期货国债日报-20251212

Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoints - The domestic bond market continued to be bullish, mainly driven by the loose inter - bank funds. The Fed cut interest rates as expected and restarted balance - sheet expansion, with a neutral dot - plot result [8]. - The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds across all tenors declined, mostly by around 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the active 10 - year treasury bond 250016 was reported at 1.83%, down 0.5bp [9]. - The inter - bank liquidity further eased. There were 180.8 billion yuan in maturities in the open market today, and the central bank injected 118.6 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 6.22 billion yuan. The inter - bank funds sentiment index was stable, and the funds trended towards looseness [10]. - The domestic fundamentals have weakened marginally since mid - year, especially the accelerated decline in the investment sector still poses a significant drag on credit expansion. The Politburo meeting in December set the tone of "continuing the moderately loose monetary policy", so the risk of a significant adjustment or a bear market in the bond market should be limited. However, the policy - makers mentioned cross - cycle adjustment again, indicating that loose policies may not be implemented in the short term. Coupled with institutional concentrated selling triggered by the new public - fund regulations, market short - term volatility has increased [11]. - From a valuation perspective, as the bond market has adjusted continuously, interest rates are returning to a reasonable pricing level. The deviation from the policy rate is narrowing, and the basis has rebounded above the historical median, indicating that the current market is not pricing in next year's interest - rate cuts, and futures have slightly over - adjusted compared to spot bonds. If market sentiment improves in the future, futures have some room for catch - up growth. In the short term, inflation remains weak, with PPI weaker than expected, suggesting that the pressure of oversupply is still high. The fundamentals still support the bond market. Overseas, the Fed's balance - sheet expansion is faster than expected, which is expected to maintain a loose overseas liquidity environment. The domestic expectation of monetary easing has not yet heated up, waiting for further policy guidance, and the strength of allocation funds remains cautious [12] Industry News - He Lifeng, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice - Premier of the State Council, met with Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund. They exchanged views on the current international economic and financial situation and continued cooperation. He Lifeng said that China's economy has been performing steadily and well this year, and China is confident and capable of maintaining sustainable and healthy economic development [13]. - He Yadong, Spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce, said that the Ministry of Commerce will take the full - scale customs - clearance operation as an opportunity to vigorously promote institutional opening - up and strive to build the Hainan Free Trade Port into an important gateway leading China's opening - up in the new era [13]. - He Yadong mentioned in a regular press conference that China and the EU held a trade - remedy dialogue this week and will continue consultations next week. The China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products proposed a solution representing the industry's overall stance, and the two sides have achieved certain results through multiple rounds of consultations [14]. - At a regular press conference, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun responded to a question about Mexico's new import - export tariff bill. He emphasized that going against the trend of economic globalization and practicing protectionism is harmful to both parties. He hoped that Mexico would correct its wrong practices and work together with China to maintain the overall situation of bilateral economic and trade relations [14] Data Overview Treasury Bond Futures Quotes - The trading data of treasury bond futures on December 11, including contract information such as TL2512, TL2603, etc., covering pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open - interest change [6] Money Market - The inter - bank funds further loosened. The central bank achieved a net withdrawal of 6.22 billion yuan in the open market. The weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits decreased by 1.14bp to 1.2768%, the 7 - day rate fluctuated around 1.45%, and the 1 - year AAA certificate - of - deposit rate fluctuated between 1.64% and 1.66% [10]