贵金属日评-20251212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The medium - long - term upward trend of gold and the precious metals sector remains unchanged, and investors are advised to maintain a bullish stance in precious metals trading [4][5] - The intermediate bull market of precious metals since March 2024 has not ended. In the next half - year and one - year, London gold may rise to $4500 and $4800 per ounce respectively, and London silver may rise to $58 and $63 per ounce respectively [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - The dovish tone of the Fed's interest - rate meeting pushed down the US dollar index and drove up precious metals prices. Silver prices have been running strongly recently, and there is still significant room for growth in 2026, but short - term adjustment risks should be noted [4] - In the short - to - medium term, London gold needs to move within the range of $3880 - $4380 per ounce to accumulate momentum for a new breakthrough. In the medium - term, factors such as central bank easing, geopolitical risks, and the restructuring of the global trade and monetary system support the upward trend of gold [4] 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - The precious metals intermediate bull market since March 2024 has not ended. In the next half - year and one - year, London gold may reach $4500 and $4800 per ounce respectively, and London silver may reach $58 and $63 per ounce respectively [5] - After the significant decline in gold and silver prices since late October, the internal adjustment risks have been partially released. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to go long again when technical and fundamental factors resonate [5] 3.2 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - The Fed cut the target policy rate range by 25 basis points to 3.50% - 3.75%, with three policymakers voting against it. The Fed hinted at a possible pause in further rate cuts, and the market expects two rate cuts in 2026 [17] - US President Trump said that the US seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela, which intensified the tension between the US and Venezuela and pushed up oil prices [17] - ECB President Lagarde said that the eurozone economy has shown resilience in the face of trade tensions, and the ECB may raise its economic growth forecast next week. The market believes there is no need to adjust interest rates [18]