大越期货原油早报-20251212

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The oil market remains in a low - price operation. Although there are some positive factors, there is still a risk of continued decline without geopolitical news stimulation. SC2601 is expected to operate in the range of 435 - 445, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. - Short - term, the market is waiting for geopolitical bullish factors; in the medium - and long - term, there is a risk of oversupply [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: The US plans to intercept more oil tankers transporting Venezuelan oil, OPEC+ increased production slightly in November, and the IEA lowered the forecast of next year's global oil supply surplus. Overall, it is neutral [3]. - Basis: On December 11, the basis was 26.44 yuan/barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - Inventory: US API and EIA crude inventories decreased, but Cushing area inventory increased. Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged. Overall, it is neutral [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish [3]. - Main Position: As of October 28, WTI crude oil main position long orders increased; as of December 2, Brent crude oil main position long orders increased, which is bullish [3]. 3.2 Recent News - US Oil Tanker Seizure: The US is ready to seize more oil tankers off the Venezuelan coast, and the Treasury updated the Venezuelan sanctions list [5]. - OPEC and IEA Reports: OPEC+ increased production in November, and the IEA raised the forecast of 2026 global oil demand growth and lowered the supply growth forecast, predicting a slightly narrower supply surplus [5]. - Ukrainian Peace Plan: Ukraine submitted a revised 20 - point peace plan to the US, and the negotiation team will discuss security guarantees [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish Factors: Sanctions against Russia and OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year [6]. - Bearish Factors: Easing of the Middle East situation, consistent expectations of oil oversupply among institutions, and some progress in the US - Russia peace agreement negotiation [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Quotes: Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil prices all declined on the day, with decreases ranging from 0.88% to 2.49% [7]. - Spot Quotes: The prices of various types of crude oil in the spot market also decreased, with decreases ranging from 1.07% to 3.07% [9]. - Inventory Data: API and EIA inventories showed different trends in different periods, and Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged [3][10][12]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: As of October 28, the net long position increased [15]. - Brent Crude Oil: As of December 2, the net long position increased [17].