大越期货沥青期货早报-20251212

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of the asphalt market is that the supply pressure is high, the demand recovery is weak, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The asphalt 2602 contract is expected to oscillate between 2935 - 2985 [8][9]. - The supply side shows that the planned production volume in December 2025 decreased slightly compared with the previous month, but the production capacity utilization rate increased this week, and the refineries increased production, which may increase the supply pressure next week [8]. - The demand side indicates that the current demand is lower than the historical average level, with the开工 rates of various types of asphalt and related products mostly below the historical average [8]. - The cost side shows that the asphalt processing loss increased, the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased, and the support from crude oil is expected to weaken in the short term [8]. - The base - point situation on December 11 shows that the spot price in Shandong is at a discount to the futures price, which is a bearish factor [9]. - In terms of inventory, the social inventory is in a state of continuous destocking, while the factory - level inventory and port inventory are in a state of continuous accumulation, showing a neutral situation [9]. - The disk shows that the MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 02 contract is below the MA20, which is a bearish factor [9]. - The main positions are net short, and the short positions are increasing, which is a bearish factor [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply - side: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 2.158 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt is 30.0815%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. The sample enterprises' shipment volume is 280,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.06%, and the output is 502,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.03%. The estimated maintenance volume of the sample enterprises' devices is 826,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.61%. The refineries increased production this week, increasing the supply pressure, and the supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - Demand - side: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 27.9%, with no month - on - month change and lower than the historical average; the construction rate of building asphalt is 6.6%, with no month - on - month change and lower than the historical average; the construction rate of modified asphalt is 9.2238%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.34 percentage points and lower than the historical average; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt is 29%, with no month - on - month change and lower than the historical average; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes is 34%, a month - on - month increase of 0.20 percentage points and lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - Cost - side: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 529.49 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.50%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 1,003.1686 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9.05%. The asphalt processing loss increased, the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased, and the crude oil is weakening, with the support expected to weaken in the short term [8]. - Base - point: On December 11, the spot price in Shandong is 2,930 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 02 contract is - 30 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is a bearish factor [9]. - Inventory: The social inventory is 745,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.74%; the factory - level inventory is 588,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.20%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 670,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.54%. The social inventory is continuously destocking, while the factory - level inventory and port inventory are continuously accumulating, showing a neutral situation [9]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 02 contract is below the MA20, which is a bearish factor [9]. - Main Positions: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are increasing, which is a bearish factor [9]. - Expectation: The refineries' recent production arrangements have increased production, increasing the supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, the demand boost is limited, and the overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish; the inventory is flat; the crude oil is weakening, and the cost support will weaken in the short term. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2602 contract oscillating between 2935 - 2985 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, basis, inventory, and other data of multiple asphalt futures contracts (01 - 12 contracts), including price changes, basis changes, and inventory changes compared with the previous period [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [19][21]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the spreads of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [23][24]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: The report presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [27]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: The report shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025 [30][31]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: The report presents the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, SC crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [33][35]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [36][37]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit: The report presents the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [38][39]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: The report shows the historical trends of the profit spreads between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [41][43]. - Supply - side Analysis - Shipment Volume: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [45][46]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: The report shows the historical trends of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [47][48]. - Output: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly and monthly output of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [50][51]. - Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend: The report shows the historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output from 2018 to 2025 [54][56]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Output: The report presents the historical trends of the local refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 [57][58]. - Operating Rate: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly operating rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [60][61]. - Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume: The report presents the historical trends of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [63][64]. - Inventory Analysis - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: The report shows the historical trends of the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory - level inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [66][69]. - Social Inventory and Factory - level Inventory: The report presents the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and factory - level inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [70][71]. - Factory - level Inventory Inventory Ratio: The report shows the historical trends of the factory - level inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [73][74]. - Import - Export Situation - The report presents the historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of the import price difference of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [76][80]. - Demand - side Analysis - Petroleum Coke Output: The report presents the historical trends of petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 [82][83]. - Apparent Consumption: The report shows the historical trends of the apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [85][86]. - Downstream Demand - Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment, New Local Special Bonds, and Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year: The report presents the historical trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [88][90]. - Downstream Machinery Demand: The report shows the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly operating hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume of excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 to 2025 [92][95]. - Asphalt Operating Rate - Heavy - traffic Asphalt Operating Rate: The report presents the historical trends of the heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [97][98]. - Asphalt Operating Rate by Use: The report shows the historical trends of the construction asphalt operating rate and the modified asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [100][101]. - Downstream Operating Conditions: The report presents the historical trends of the operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, and shoe - material TPR from 2019 to 2025 [102][105]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The report presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2025, including monthly output, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, factory - level inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [107][108].