建信期货铝日报-20251212

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp at its December FOMC meeting, the sixth cut since September 2024. The aluminum price oscillated as the market had already priced in the rate cut. The main contract 2602 closed at 21,970, up 0.23%. The total open interest of the index decreased slightly by 64 to 660,076 lots. Spot market supply tightened due to shipping disruptions in Xinjiang, leading to improved trading and a narrowing discount. The import window was closed, with a spot import loss of about -1,900 yuan/ton. Bauxite prices remained weak, and alumina continued to decline by 1.4% to 2,469 yuan/ton. The short-term supply of electrolytic aluminum remained stable both at home and abroad, and weekly inventories continued to decline. The aluminum price is expected to be strong in the short term, and investors are advised to buy on dips and avoid chasing the market [7]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Trading Recommendations - Market Performance: The Fed's rate cut had little impact on the aluminum price, which oscillated. The main contract 2602 closed slightly higher, and the total open interest decreased. Spot market supply tightened, and the import window was closed [7]. - Raw Material Prices: Bauxite prices remained weak due to tight domestic supply but high absolute inventory and low willingness of alumina enterprises to increase procurement prices. Alumina prices continued to decline, with strong bearish sentiment and no sign of a bottom [7]. - Supply and Demand: The short-term supply of electrolytic aluminum remained stable, and weekly inventories continued to decline. The aluminum price increase and weakening end-of-year consumption may lead to a decline in the operating rate this week, but inventory decline is expected to continue until the end of the month due to shipping issues in Xinjiang [7]. - Trading Strategy: The aluminum price is expected to be strong in the short term, and investors are advised to buy on dips and avoid chasing the market [7]. 2. Industry News - Nalco's Expansion Plan: India's state-owned National Aluminium Company (Nalco) plans to start mining the Pottangi bauxite mine in Odisha in June 2026 to support its integrated aluminum business expansion. It is also expanding the fifth production line at its Damanjodi alumina refinery, increasing annual capacity by 1 million tons to 3.275 million tons [8][10]. - EIB's Loan to ZSE: The European Investment Bank (EIB) approved a 350 million euro loan to Slovakia's ZSE Group to support its grid modernization project. The project aims to improve grid stability and power quality, attract industries, and promote sustainable growth and energy independence [10]. - UK's Aluminum Imports: UK aluminum imports increased to 626,843 tons in the first eight months of 2025, up from 566,995 tons in the same period last year. The increase is due to a decline in domestic production from 320,000 tons in 2000 to 103,000 tons in 2024, while demand remained stable. The UK aluminum market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.2% to $2.65 billion by 2030 [10]. - China's Auto Industry: China's auto production and sales exceeded 31 million units in the first 11 months of 2025, up more than 10% year-on-year. New energy vehicle production and sales approached 15 million units, up more than 30% year-on-year, and exports reached 2.315 million units, doubling year-on-year [10].