原油成品油早报-20251212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated and closed higher. The G7 and the EU considered banning Russian export shipping services instead of the oil price cap, Ukraine attacked a refinery and a small port of Rosneft, and CPC exports were blocked, leading to a decline in Kazakhstan's daily oil production and a rebound in absolute prices. Fundamentally, global oil inventories are accumulating, Saudi Aramco lowered the price of Arab Light crude oil for Asia in January, U.S. EIA crude oil and refined oil inventories are accumulating, and the refinery operating rate in the U.S. has recovered above 94%. The crack spreads of gasoline and diesel in Europe and the U.S. have declined, and the short - term diesel fundamentals are stronger. The price range of Brent in the fourth quarter is $55 - 65 per barrel, maintaining a short - selling idea. With a small short - term valuation deviation, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily News - Trump plans to sanction Maduro's nephews and several companies transporting Venezuelan oil. The Trump administration imposed new sanctions on three nephews of Venezuelan President Maduro, a businessman closely related to the Maduro regime, and six companies transporting Venezuelan oil. The day before the sanctions, the U.S. seized a ship carrying Venezuelan crude oil [3] - The U.S. is preparing to seize more oil tankers off the Venezuelan coast. After seizing an oil tanker this week, the U.S. is preparing to intercept more ships transporting Venezuelan oil to increase pressure on Maduro. The U.S. has drawn up a list of target tankers that may be seized [3] - Russia's crude oil production increased slightly in November but remained below the quota. Russia's daily crude oil production rose slightly to 9.367 million barrels in November, an increase of 100,000 barrels per day from October, but still below the OPEC + quota of 9.532 million barrels per day. OPEC + has increased the crude oil production target by more than 2.7 million barrels per day this year, and decided to maintain the current production level in the first quarter of 2026. Kazakhstan's crude oil production exceeded the quota in November [4] 3.2 Inventory - U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending December 5th was - 1.812 million barrels, with an expected - 2.31 million barrels and a previous value of 0.574 million barrels; strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 0.248 million barrels, with a previous value of 0.25 million barrels; gasoline inventory was 6.397 million barrels, with an expected 2.764 million barrels and a previous value of 4.518 million barrels; refined oil inventory was 2.502 million barrels, with an expected 1.943 million barrels and a previous value of 2.059 million barrels; Cushing crude oil inventory in Oklahoma was 0.308 million barrels, with a previous value of - 0.457 million barrels; refinery equipment utilization rate was 94.5%, with an expected 94.4% and a previous value of 94.1% [4] 3.3 Weekly View - This week, oil prices fluctuated and closed higher. The G7 and the EU considered banning Russian export shipping services instead of the oil price cap, Ukraine attacked a refinery and a small port of Rosneft, and CPC exports were blocked, leading to a decline in Kazakhstan's daily oil production and a rebound in absolute prices. Fundamentally, global oil inventories are accumulating, Saudi Aramco lowered the price of Arab Light crude oil for Asia in January, U.S. EIA crude oil and refined oil inventories are accumulating, and the refinery operating rate in the U.S. has recovered above 94%. The crack spreads of gasoline and diesel in Europe and the U.S. have declined, and the short - term diesel fundamentals are stronger. The price range of Brent in the fourth quarter is $55 - 65 per barrel, maintaining a short - selling idea. With a small short - term valuation deviation, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [4]